EMPIRICAL ANALYSES OF THE DUTCH DISEASE IN AZERBAIJAN’S ECONOMY

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Uzeyir Safarli-2394666.pdf

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2022-12

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Safarli, Uzeyir

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Dutch Disease syndrome has been frequently investigated in the literature and observed as a threat to the resource-rich economies. Basically, it describes a phenomenon which increasing activity in a booming resource sector harms overall economy and decreases growth. This thesis analyzes effects of the petroleum sector employing various indicators ( export of the petroleum sector, transfers from SOFAZ, and price shocks) on various units of the economy namely GDP growth, output in the non-oil tradable sector, REER, government expenditure, and investment expenditure for Azerbaijan’s economy under the topic of “Dutch Disease”. Employing VAR methodology this analysis covers 20 years between 2001 and 2020 using quarterly data. Granger Causality test, Impulse-Response analysis, and Variance Decomposition features of the VAR models are used in this paper. The main conclusion of this analysis is that Azerbaijan’s economy is not suffering from the Dutch Disease. Although REER appreciates because of the increasing activity in the booming sector, it is not followed by the negative affection of the GDP growth and the non-oil tradable sector. The investigations revealed that the main reason behind that is the subsidization of the non-oil sector with the transfers directed from SOFAZ. Additionally, analysis of the possible asymmetric effects of the negative and positive price shocks revealed that although positive price shocks affect the economy positively, negative price shocks fail to cause downturns in the economy. It is concluded that this is the result of policies aiming to prevent the consequences of the negative price shocks. Overall, it is hard to claim that the petroleum sector negatively affected the growth.

Subject Keywords

Azerbaijan, Dutch Disease, natural resources, Vector Autoregression

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/101301

Collections

Graduate School of Social Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

U. Safarli, “EMPIRICAL ANALYSES OF THE DUTCH DISEASE IN AZERBAIJAN’S ECONOMY,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2022.