Assessment of the impacts of future climatic variations and anthropogenic activities on Burdur Lake levels

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2023-1-24

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Kılıç Germeç, Hatice

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Lake water levels naturally fluctuate due to imbalances in water inputs and outputs. However, lake hydrologic regimes may be altered by the impacts of climatic factors and human interventions, as in Burdur Lake. The Burdur Lake level has continuously decreased since the beginning of the 1970s. In this study, in order to quantify the loss/gain relationship between the aquifer and the Burdur Lake and specify the potential causes and consequences for the lake level decline, a 3-D numerical groundwater flow model was developed using MODFLOW. Conceptual lake budget components were calculated separately with the analytic methods. Also, a numerical 2-D surface water flow model was developed to calculate the surface water inflow to the lake. Subsequently, a transient calibration was conducted for 1969-1971 and 2014-2016, simulating the lake using the lake package. The model calibrations succeeded within the acceptable error limits with respect to the lake and groundwater levels and conceptual lake budget. The responses of the aquifer and lake to the changes, such as future climatic variations, groundwater pumping, and operation of reservoirs on the streams feeding the lake, were assessed for three scenarios over a period of 46 years. Future climatic data originated from RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of the CORDEX Regional Climate Models. Burdur Lake level is expected to decline by up to 7 m with the impacts of climate variations and excessive pumping and increase by up to 3 m, despite the effect of climate change with the release of surface water flows within 46 years. The findings suggest that a dynamic lake management plan should be identified to create and maintain desired conditions in Burdur Lake and its watershed.

Subject Keywords

Burdur Lake, Lake level variations, MODFLOW, Climate change, Anthropogenic activities

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/102492

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Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

H. Kılıç Germeç, “Assessment of the impacts of future climatic variations and anthropogenic activities on Burdur Lake levels,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2023.