The analysis of current and future climate projections of Türkiye and the large-scale Eastern Mediterranean Black Sea Region in the coarse and high resolutions

Bağçacı, Soner Çağatay
This thesis mainly focuses on climatic change over Türkiye and the Eastern Mediterranean Black Sea (EMBS) region with three-legged studies utilizing cutting-edge global climate models (GCMs) and reanalysis. The first study unfolds the future projections of Türkiye under the medium and high emission scenarios by the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) GCMs. The second study conducts sensitivity tests with a 60-model physics combination of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over Türkiye for 2020. The final study utilizes the Pseudo Global Warming (PGW) approach to dynamically downscale the CMIP6 GCMs ensemble under the high-emission range to a high resolution (4 km) over the EMBS. The main findings show that winter precipitation is expected to decrease over Türkiye's southwest and increase over Türkiye's northeast, all of which are statistically significant under both scenarios. On the other hand, convectivity caused by warmer projections under the high-emission scenario partly offset summer precipitation decrease over Türkiye. The daily precipitation correlation values are between 0.5 and 0.65 in the sensitivity study, which range was improved in the long-term simulations. The WRF model perfectly captured the winter and spring precipitation anomalies and large-scale low-level circulation anomalies over the EMBS in whole seasons. The heat-low development in summer and its trace in fall were also generally well captured by WRF. However, the main contradiction appears especially in summer precipitation anomalies over the Caucasus and nearby regions, which was discussed with the additional simulation by reasoning the sea-surface temperature anomalies of the Caspian Sea.


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The performances of a large number of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) belonging to the latest release the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) in comparison with its predecessor CMIP5 are evaluated for monthly precipitation and temperature over Turkey (i.e. climate change hotspot). The ensemble of best top four models from both CMIP simulations is also used to investigate the future climate change under medium and high emissions for short, medium, and long terms. Results show CMIP6 product...
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Assessment of trends in climatological parameters observed in the last decades and the climate change projections through modeling studies indicated a high potential of increasing temperatures, decreasing precipitation, and runoff for Southern Europe and the Mediterranean basin. Within the scope of this study, climate change analysis for Antalya and its surrounding basins is conducted and the effects of climate change on streamflow in Oymapınar Basin and inflow of Oymapınar HEPP that is used for energy prod...
Sensitivity and sea surface temperature analyses of WRF model for predicting heavy rainfall events observed in Eastern Black Sea and Mediterranean regions of Turkey
Pilatin, Heves; Yücel, İsmail; Kentel Erdoğan, Elçin; Department of Earth System Science (2020-8)
With this thesis it is aimed to enhance the prediction accuracy of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model on the extreme precipitation events of Mediterranean and Eastern Black Sea regions of Turkey. While the first part of sensitivity analysis was conducted for the physical parameters (microphysics, cumulus and PBL) and the initial boundary conditions, the second part has only focused on the impact of sea surface temperature (SST). After choosing 4 microphysics, 3 cumulus, 2 PBL and 2 input meteo...
Citation Formats
S. Ç. Bağçacı, “The analysis of current and future climate projections of Türkiye and the large-scale Eastern Mediterranean Black Sea Region in the coarse and high resolutions,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2023.