The analysis of current and future climate projections of Türkiye and the large-scale Eastern Mediterranean Black Sea Region in the coarse and high resolutions

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2023-3-03

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Bağçacı, Soner Çağatay

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This thesis mainly focuses on climatic change over Türkiye and the Eastern Mediterranean Black Sea (EMBS) region with three-legged studies utilizing cutting-edge global climate models (GCMs) and reanalysis. The first study unfolds the future projections of Türkiye under the medium and high emission scenarios by the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) GCMs. The second study conducts sensitivity tests with a 60-model physics combination of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over Türkiye for 2020. The final study utilizes the Pseudo Global Warming (PGW) approach to dynamically downscale the CMIP6 GCMs ensemble under the high-emission range to a high resolution (4 km) over the EMBS. The main findings show that winter precipitation is expected to decrease over Türkiye's southwest and increase over Türkiye's northeast, all of which are statistically significant under both scenarios. On the other hand, convectivity caused by warmer projections under the high-emission scenario partly offset summer precipitation decrease over Türkiye. The daily precipitation correlation values are between 0.5 and 0.65 in the sensitivity study, which range was improved in the long-term simulations. The WRF model perfectly captured the winter and spring precipitation anomalies and large-scale low-level circulation anomalies over the EMBS in whole seasons. The heat-low development in summer and its trace in fall were also generally well captured by WRF. However, the main contradiction appears especially in summer precipitation anomalies over the Caucasus and nearby regions, which was discussed with the additional simulation by reasoning the sea-surface temperature anomalies of the Caspian Sea.

Subject Keywords

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, Global Climate Model, Eastern Mediterranean Black Sea Region, Pseudo Global Warming, Weather Research and Forecast Model

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/102565

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Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

S. Ç. Bağçacı, “The analysis of current and future climate projections of Türkiye and the large-scale Eastern Mediterranean Black Sea Region in the coarse and high resolutions,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2023.