Impact of Climate Change in the Southern Mediterranean of Turkey: A method to assess Oymapinar reservoir’s inflow projections

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2022-6

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Mesta Yoleri, Buket

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Assessment of trends in climatological parameters observed in the last decades and the climate change projections through modeling studies indicated a high potential of increasing temperatures, decreasing precipitation, and runoff for Southern Europe and the Mediterranean basin. Within the scope of this study, climate change analysis for Antalya and its surrounding basins is conducted and the effects of climate change on streamflow in Oymapınar Basin and inflow of Oymapınar HEPP that is used for energy production are investigated. Climate change analyses are carried out using CORDEX Regional Climate Models and MRI’s (Japan Meteorological Research Institute) super high-resolution MRI-AGCM and NHRCM models. Precipitation and temperature projections are carried out using each of these models and also through ensemble analysis. HBV-light and HEC-HMS are used for hydrological modeling of the Oymapınar basin to identify likely impacts on streamflow as well as for short-, medium- and long-term analysis of the Oymapınar HEPP reservoir inflow. Almost all of the climate models used in the study predict a decrease in areal precipitation means in the study area in the medium and long-term, and an increase in temperature for short-, medium- and long-term both for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. It is estimated that climate change effects that are expected to be experienced in temperature and precipitation will reduce the inflows to the Oymapınar HEPP reservoir, especially in the long term. In order to minimize the potential negative impacts of the variations in precipitation and temperature caused by climate change, and their effects on water resources and hydropower production, it seems necessary to develop effective adaptation strategies and start implementing them in a tiered manner.

Subject Keywords

Temperature, Precipitation, Hydrological Modeling, Multi-model Ensemble Analysis, High-Resolution Climate Models

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https://hdl.handle.net/11511/98139

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Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

B. Mesta Yoleri, “Impact of Climate Change in the Southern Mediterranean of Turkey: A method to assess Oymapinar reservoir’s inflow projections,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2022.