Date

2002

Author

Sarı, Mehmet

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Although modern underground mining methods are introduced, every year mine accidents in Turkey cause a vast amount of economical losses as well as the lives. Risks due to accidents have to be identified, evaluated and controlled or eliminated by proper techniques. In this study, a risk assessment approach will be taken into consideration based on the evaluation of the risk profiles of two underground coal mines in Turkey. Historical data of last seven years in GLI- Tuncbilek mine and ELI-Eynez mine constitutes the database of the study. Here, historical accident records are statistically analyzed and most dangerous accident locations, types of accident, job category of injured, part of body affected and age interval of injured are determined. A comparative study on the basic safety performance values of coal industry in Turkey and some other major countries are illustrated graphically for different measures. A risk analysis methodology is mdeveloped and implemented on two underground coal mines. For each variable in the accident data, related risk matrices are constructed by setting proper scales for two components in a risk formula namely frequency and severity. A probabilistic approach has been applied in the study towards the determination of a quantitative risk scale for two underground coalmines. For this purpose, two suitable probability distributions are fitted to the accident data to estimate possible ranges of each component in the risk formulation. Poisson distribution modeling the number of accidents and lognormal distribution modeling the number of days lost from work as a consequence are simply combined by simulation in order to construct proper risk levels referring to the final cumulative distribution. Prediction of future occurrences in the accidents is achieved by means of employing two common statistical techniques namely multiple linear regression (MLR) and time series (TS) analysis. MLR model explains the functional relationship between number of accidents and four independent variables effective in occurrence of the event. TS model is a useful tool in the forecasting of expected accidents in the future. Both models are successful in this regard and risk levels in the following years can be established according to results of both techniques. Characteristics and necessary criteria for the insurance have been established and loss-premium calculations have been detailed for two mines mechanized panels. Finally, several alternatives to manage the unacceptable risks are proposed.

Subject Keywords

Coal mines and mining, Risk assessment, Risk (Insurance), Insurance, Casualty, Underground coal mining, Accident analysis, Probability distribution, Multiple linear regression, Time series analysis, Risk management, Insurance

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/12786

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis