Risk assessment and accident forecasting for an underground coal mine

Download
index.pdf
2018
Mevsim, Merve
Show full item record
449
views
136
downloads
In Turkey, underground coal mine accidents are commonly faced problems and cause loss of lives and money. In order to prevent these accidents, the hazards and risks specific to each mine should be assessed by both ordering the risk scores and building a statistical model for the future trend of accidents. In this study, past accident records of Üzülmez District of Turkish Hard Coal Enterprises is utilized. The risk scoring model is built by using Riskex Risk Score Calculator based on Fine-Kinney risk score equation. In accident forecasting, multiple linear regression and time series analysis techniques are utilized by the aid of the Minitab 17 software. The data taken from Turkish Hard Coal Enterprises the Department of Labor Health, Safety and Education includes accident type, location, work shift, job, affected body part, age and experience for each recorded accident. Firstly, the scores of the risk of those seven category is found by utilizing Fine-Kinney method and the risks of each accident type, accident location, shift, job, body part affected after having an accident, age group and experience duration are ordered in order to find the relative seriousness of them. Secondly, expected number of accidents in future is forecasted with the aid of multiple linear regression and time series analysis. By performing multiple linear regression it is aimed to observe how the variables like raw coal production, total gallery advance, total number of workers, explosive consumption, and timber consumption effect number of accidents. By time series analysis, the number of accidents expected in future is determined which is thought to provide benefits to occupational health and safety managers in monitoring the performance of safety precautions. Time series model is found to be more reliable and practicable than multiple linear regression which uses just the monthly number of accidents as random variable. Research findings revealed that moving average time series model is the best fit model when the evaluation is made in terms of calculated accuracy values. However, quadratic trend model should be preferred when long term forecast horizon is needed.
Coal mines and mining., Coal mine accidents., Risk assessment., Mine accidents., Coal
http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12622099/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/27304
Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

Suggestions

Analysis and modelling for risk management for underground coal mines’ safety
Eratak, Özlem Deniz; Karpuz, Celal; Department of Mining Engineering (2014)
Safety in underground coal mining has become an important issue because of increasing number of accidents. There are many different hazards may cause these accidents and the most efficient method for coping with risks is the use of risk management techniques. In this thesis, accident data including workday losses, age of the injured, organ affected by accident, season, shift and reason of the accident was collected from TKI mines (ELI- Soma Eynez and GLI Tuncbilek) and TTK mines. Those variables were initia...
Risk assessment approach on underground coal mine safety analysis
Sarı, Mehmet; Karpuz, Celal; Selçuk, A. Sevtap; Department of Mining Engineering (2002)
Although modern underground mining methods are introduced, every year mine accidents in Turkey cause a vast amount of economical losses as well as the lives. Risks due to accidents have to be identified, evaluated and controlled or eliminated by proper techniques. In this study, a risk assessment approach will be taken into consideration based on the evaluation of the risk profiles of two underground coal mines in Turkey. Historical data of last seven years in GLI- Tuncbilek mine and ELI-Eynez mine constitu...
Monitoring and statistical modelling of dust concentration of some Turkish lignites under laboratory conditions
Karakaş, Ahmet; Güyagüler, Tevfik; Department of Mining Engineering (2010)
Although technological developments enable maximum safety, high dust formation is still a crucial problem in coal mining sector. This study is aimed to investigate the relationship between amount of coal dust produced during cutting operation and some important coal properties together with cutting parameters for different particle size ranges in laboratory conditions. For this purpose, six Turkish lignite samples were used in the experiments. Two experiment sets were designed to generate coal dust by using...
Development of a computer-based risk assessment tool for underground coal mines
Başayar Büyükkara, Fatma Nur; Karpuz, Celal; Department of Mining Engineering (2016)
Underground coal mining remains one of the world’s most hazardous occupations. There are numerous hazards in a mine, such as gas, dust, noise, temperature, and high humidity. Besides, increasing number of occupational accidents in underground coal mines shows the importance of occupational health and safety in these workplaces. By means of Occupational Health and Safety Law No 6331, attention to health and safety in the workplace has grown in recent years in Turkey. In addition, conducting an occupational h...
Risk assessment by fault tree analysis of methane explosions in Turkish hard coal enterprises underground mines
Mevsim, Rıdvan; Demirel, Nuray; Department of Mining Engineering (2016)
Mining is one of the most hazardous industries in the world. Among all mining professions, underground coal mining has the highest occupational accident and disease rates. Methane explosion appears as the major accident type which results in severe loss of life and property in underground coal mining. Including underground coal mines, preparing a practicable risk assessment is the primary step to sustain a safe workplace environment. The main objective of this study is to specify the root causes of methane ...
Citation Formats
M. Mevsim, “Risk assessment and accident forecasting for an underground coal mine,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2018.
METU IIS - Integrated Information Service open@metu.edu.tr