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Analysis of safety stock for production- inventory problem of a company under multiplicative form of forecast evolution

Kayhan, Mehmet
In this thesis, we focus on integration issue of manufacturing and sales functions from the perspective of aggregate production planning. The manufacturing function and sales function are performed by separate affiliated companies of the same business group, which operate as an integrated supplier-buyer system. In particular, this study provides theoretical and practical insight into the use of forecast volatility measure to better match supply with demand so as to reduce the costs of inventory and stock-outs in the manufacturer-buyer relationship under described master production-scheduling environment. Nature of forecast modifications provided by the buyer lays the foundation for the study. We modify the existing aggregate production planning model to accommodate a measure of historical forecast evolution. The overall objective of the thesis is to provide management with aforecast evolution-modeling framework to examine performance characteristics of the manufacturer-buyer interaction.