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Development of a software for seismic damage estimation : case studies

Küçükçoban, Sezgin
The occurrence of two recent major earthquakes, 17 August 1999 Mw = 7.4 Izmit and 12 November 1999 Mw = 7.1 Düzce, in Turkey prompted seismologists and geologists to conduct studies to predict magnitude and location of a potential earthquake that can cause substantial damage in Istanbul. Many scenarios are available about the extent and size of the earthquake. Moreover, studies have recommended rough estimates of risk areas throughout the city to trigger responsible authorities to take precautions to reduce the casualties and loss for the earthquake expected. Most of these studies, however, adopt available procedure by modifying them for the building stock peculiar to Turkey. The assumptions and modifications made are too crude and thus are believed to introduce significant deviations from the actual case. To minimize these errors and use specific damage functions and capacity curves that reflect the practice in Turkey, a study was undertaken to predict damage pattern and distribution in Istanbul for a scenario earthquake proposed by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). The success of these studies strongly depends on the quality and validity of building inventory and site property data. Building damage functions and capacity curves developed from the studies conducted in Middle East Technical University are used. A number of proper attenuation relations are employed. The study focuses mainly on developing a software to carry out all computations and present results. The results of this study reveal a more reliable picture of the physical seismic damage distribution expected in Istanbul.