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Numerical simulation of the Çınarcık dam failure on the Orhaneli River

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2005
Bağ, Fırat
This thesis analyzes the probable outcome of the fictitious failure of a dam under a set of pre-defined scenarios, within the framework of a case study, the case subject being the Cinarcik Dam located within Bursa Province of Turkey. The failure of the dam is not analyzed neither structural nor hydraulic-wise but is assumed to be triggered when certain critical criteria are exceeded. Hence, the analyses focus on the aftermath of the failure and strive to anticipate the level of inundation downstream of the dam itself. For the purpose of the analyses, the FLDWAV software developed by the National Weather Service of USA is used to spatially and temporally predict the flow profiles, water surface elevations and discharges occurring downstream of the Çinarcik Dam under the defined set of scenarios. Based on these analyses, indicative inundation maps and settlements under risk will be identified, and the thesis study will further address some available pre-event measures that may be taken in advance.