Estimation of earthquake insurance premium rates based stochastic methods

Deniz, Aykut
In this thesis, stochastic methods are utilized to improve a familiar comprehensive probabilistic model to obtain realistic estimates of the earthquake insurance premium rates in different seismic zones of Turkey. The model integrates the information on future earthquake threat with the information on expected earthquake damage to buildings. The quantification of the future earthquake threat is achieved by making use of the seismic hazard analysis techniques. Due to the uncertainties involved, the hazard that may occur at a site during future earthquakes has to be treated in a probabilistic manner. Accessibility of past earthquake data from a number of different data sources, encourages the consideration of every single earthquake report. Seismic zonation of active earthquake generating regions has been improved as recent contributions are made available. Finally, up-to-date data bases have been utilized to establish local attenuation relationships reflecting the expected earthquake wave propagation and its randomness more effectively. The damage that may occur to structures during future earthquakes involves various uncertainties and also has to be treated in a probabilistic manner. For this purpose, damage probability matrices (DPM), expressing what will happen to buildings, designed according to some particular set of requirements, during earthquakes of various intensities, are constructed from observational and estimated data. With the above considerations, in order to demonstrate the application of the improved probabilistic method, earthquake insurance premium rates are computed for reinforced concrete and masonry buildings constructed in different seismic zones of Turkey.


Application of risk management process on wave propagation in aerospace medium
Konukcu, Selda; Tulunay, Yurdanur; Department of Aerospace Engineering (2006)
In this thesis, risk management methods are investigated in order to integrate risk management practices into the Turkish Aerospace industry. The research presents the sequence of risk management processes as identification of risk, analysis of risk, risk planning etc. Risk analysis methods named as Risk Ranking and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) are investigated in order to improve reliability and safety of the systems or processes in the aerospace industry. The main aim of using risk ranking and AHP t...
Benefit-cost analysis for retrofitting of selected residental buildings in İstanbul
Erdurmuş, Salih Buğra; Erant, Engin; Department of Civil Engineering (2005)
During the evaluation of the seismic retrofitting option for risk reduction/mitigation measures to be applied over buildings, Benefit Cost Analysis is an often-used method. During this study of Benefit Cost Analysis, the condition that the earthquake can happen just after or sometime after retrofitting will be taken into consideration rather than some approaches that focus on the benefits and costs regarding the annual probability of the occurrence for possible earthquakes. The analysis will use conditional...
Attenuation relationship for peak groundvelocity based on strong ground motion data recorded in Turkey
Altıntaş, Süleyman Serkan; Gülkan, Polat; Department of Civil Engineering (2006)
Estimation of the ground motion parameters is extremely important for engineers to make the structures safer and more economical, so it is one of the main issues of Earthquake Engineering. Peak values of the ground motions obtained either from existing records or with the help of attenuation relationships, have been used as a useful parameter to estimate the effect of an earthquake on a specific location. Peak Ground Velocities (PGV) of a ground motion is used extensively in the recent years as a measure of...
Development of Fragility Curves for Single-Column RC Italian Bridges Using Nonlinear Static Analysis
Perdomo, Camilo; Monteiro, Ricardo; Sucuoğlu, Haluk (Informa UK Limited, 2020-05-07)
The main objective of this study is to assess the accuracy and suitability of Nonlinear Static Procedures (NSPs) in the development of analytical damage fragility curves for seismic risk assessment of large portfolios of Reinforced Concrete (RC) bridges. Seven NSP approaches, from widely used single-mode conventional pushover-based approaches to the more rigorous multi-mode conventional or adaptive pushover-based procedures are implemented. By systematically comparing fragility curve estimations in terms of...
Evaluation of displacement coefficient method for seismically retrofitted buildings with various ductility capacities
Dicleli, Murat (Wiley, 2014-07-25)
This research study is aimed at evaluating the accuracy of the displacement coefficient method (DCM) of FEMA 440 and associated nonlinear static procedure (NLSP) for actual buildings with soft story mechanism and various ductility capacities. The DCM and associated NLSP are evaluated using two existing seismically vulnerable buildings with soft story mechanism. The buildings are first retrofitted using a ductile steel-brace-link system to represent those with good ductility capacity and then retrofitted wit...
Citation Formats
A. Deniz, “Estimation of earthquake insurance premium rates based stochastic methods,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2006.