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Analysing design parameters of hydroelectric power plant projects to develop cost decision models by using regresion and neural network tools

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2010
Şahin, Hacı Bayram
Energy is increasingly becoming more important in today’s world. Ascending of energy consumption due to development of technology and dense population of earth causes greenhouse effect. One of the most valuable energy sources is hydro energy. Because of limited energy sources and excessive energy usage, cost of energy is rising. There are many ways to generate electricity. Among the electricity generation units, hydroelectric power plants are very important, since they are renewable energy sources and they have no fuel cost. Electricity is one of the most expensive input in production. Every hydro energy potential should be considered when making investment on this hydro energy potential. To decide whether a hydroelectric power plant investment is feasible or not, project cost and amount of electricity generation of the investment should be precisely estimated. This study is about cost estimation of hydroelectric power plant projects. Many design parameters and complexity of construction affect the cost of hydroelectric power plant projects. In this thesis fifty four hydroelectric power plant projects are analyzed. The data set is analyzed by using regression analysis and artificial neural network tools. As a result, two cost estimation models have been developed to determine the hydroelectric power plant project cost in early stage of the project.