A comparative study of regression analysis, neural networks and case-based reasoning for early range cost estimation of mass housing projects

Download
2010
Karancı, Hüseyin
Construction cost estimating is essential for all of the stakeholders of a construction project from the beginning stage to the end. At early stages of a construction project, the design information and scope definition are very limited, hence; during conceptual (early) cost estimation, achieving high accuracy is very difficult. The level of uncertainty included in the cost estimations should be emphasized for making correct decisions throughout the dynamic stages of construction project management process, especially during early stages. By using range estimating, the level of uncertainties can be identified in cost estimations. This study represents integrations of parametric and probabilistic cost estimation techniques in a comparative base. Combinations of regression analysis, neural networks, case – based reasoning and bootstrap method are proposed for the conceptual (early) range cost estimations of mass housing projects. Practical methods for early range cost estimation of mass housing projects are provided for construction project management professionals. The methods are applied using bid offers of a Turkish contractor given for 41 mass housing projects. The owner of all projects is Housing Development Administration of Turkey (TOKI). The mass housing projects of TOKI are generally a mix of apartment blocks, social, health and educational facilities, and some projects may also have mosques. Results of the three different approaches are compared for predictive accuracy and predictive variability, and suggestions for early range cost estimation of construction projects are made.

Suggestions

An Integrated regression-bootstrap sampling scheduling method for probabilistic duration range estimation of construction projects
Barış, Özgür; Sönmez, Rifat; Department of Civil Engineering (2019)
The estimation of project duration is important in construction projects, since it directly affects the costs and the success of the projects. Schedule risks can be determined along with the duration estimations in order to assess the possibility of delay penalties and additional costs. Therefore, the accuracy of the estimation of project duration range is very crucial in construction industry to assess the schedule risks. This thesis presents an integrated approach of non-parametric bootstrap sampling meth...
Comparison of parametric models for conceptual duration estimation of building projects
Helvacı, Aziz; Sönmez, Rifat; Department of Civil Engineering (2008)
Estimation of construction durations is a very crucial part of project planning, as several key decisions are based on the estimated durations. In general, construction durations are estimated by using planning and scheduling techniques such as Gannt or bar chart, the Critical Path Method (CPM), and the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). However, these techniques usually require detailed design information for estimation of activity durations and determination of the sequencing of the activitie...
A Support vector regression method for conceptual cost estimate of construction projects
Yolasığmaz, İsmet Berki; Sönmez, Rifat; Department of Civil Engineering (2015)
Conceptual cost estimate is very important for initial project decisions when the design information is limited and the scope is not finalized at the early stages of the construction projects. It has serious effects on planning, design, cost management and budgeting. Therefore, the decision makers should be as accurate as possible while estimating the conceptual cost at the initial stage since a misestimation on the conceptual cost may lead to serious problems during feasibility analysis or at the later sta...
From Risk Matrices to Risk Networks in Construction Projects
Qazi, Abroon; Dikmen Toker, İrem (2019-01-01)
Risk management is considered as a vital process contributing to the successful outcome of a complex construction project in terms of achieving the associated project objectives. The widely used industrial practice in managing construction project risks is to assign probability and impact values to each risk and to map risks on a risk matrix. The main criticism of this practice relates to ignoring complex interdependencies between risks and using point estimates for probability and impact values. Furthermor...
A SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE METHOD FOR BID/NO BID DECISION MAKING
Sönmez, Rifat (2017-01-01)
The bid/no bid decision is an important and complex process, and is impacted by numerous variables that are related to the contractor, project, client, competitors, tender and market conditions. Despite the complexity of bid decision making process, in the construction industry the majority of bid/no bid decisions is made informally based on experience, judgment, and perception. In this paper, a procedure based on support vector machines and backward elimination regression is presented for improving the exi...
Citation Formats
H. Karancı, “A comparative study of regression analysis, neural networks and case-based reasoning for early range cost estimation of mass housing projects,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2010.