Cash flow analysis of construction projects using fuzzy set theory

Melik, Serhat
Construction industry is a one of the most risky sectors due to high level of uncertainties included in the nature of the construction projects. Although there are many reasons, the deficiency of cash is one of the main factors threatening the success of the construction projects and causing business failures. Therefore, an appropriate cash planning technique is necessary for adequate cost control and efficient cash management while considering the risks and uncertainties of the construction projects. The main objective of this thesis is to develop a realistic, reliable and cost-schedule integrated cash flow modeling technique by using fuzzy set theory for including the uncertainties in project cost and schedule resulting from complex and ambiguous nature of construction works. The linguistic expressions are used for utilizing from human judgment and approximate reasoning ability of users for reflecting their experience into the model to create cash flow scenarios. The uncertain cost and duration estimates gathered from experts are inserted in the model as fuzzy numbers. The model provides the user different net cash flow scenarios with fuzzy formats that are beneficial for foreseeing possible cost and schedule threats to the project during the tender stage. The model is generated in Microsoft Excel 2007 using Visual Basic for applications and the model is applied to a case example.


Development of an IT-based tool for portfolio assessment and management for construction companies
Bilgin, Gözde; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Özorhon Orakçal, Beliz; Department of Civil Engineering (2019)
Development in the construction industry has leaded most of the construction companies to undertake more complex projects than before, which are generally executed concurrently. Therefore, project management routines of the companies may not support effective management of multi-projects. Project portfolio management approach has been suggested to meet requirements for coordinating multi-projects to meet strategic objectives under limited resources. Since project portfolio management requires a comprehensiv...
Case-based reasoning model for the management of design related changes in design-build construction projects
Özgüneş, Aydın; Tanyer, Ali Murat; Department of Building Science in Architecture (2016)
Project changes constitutes to an important problem in construction projects which are unavoidable and may appear at any stage of the construction. Most of the time, project changes cause conflicts between the parties and end with change orders or claims that lead to time and money losses. Moreover, design related changes, which can be defined as variations related with the design process of the construction project, are referred as one of the most frequently seen project change types in construction projec...
Identification and modeling of critical success factors of portfolio management in construction sector
Hızal, A. Sercenk; Sönmez, Rifat; Department of Civil Engineering (2019)
Project Portfolio Management (PPM) is a good theoretical fit for a multi-dimensional industry like construction, however practical implications are limited. The aim of this thesis is to deeply analyze and investigate the determinant factors on the success of portfolio management in the construction industry. Since few studies have addressed them, both PPM in the construction sector and related success factors could be regarded as newly arising subjects for the literature. Consequently, the main contribution...
Quality integrated earned value management for construction projects
Akgün, Eray; Atasoy Özcan, Güzide; Department of Civil Engineering (2019)
Today, construction sector is one of the leading sectors in the world employing millions of people and creating an economy of billions of dollars. Therefore, such a huge sector must be under control during its all stages in terms of its main components namely; cost, time and quality to achieve a unique scope. Numerous studies focus on tracking the components of cost and schedule. One of the most commonly used methods is EVM (Earned Value Management). EVM is a powerful progress measurement method, integratin...
An Integrated regression-bootstrap sampling scheduling method for probabilistic duration range estimation of construction projects
Barış, Özgür; Sönmez, Rifat; Department of Civil Engineering (2019)
The estimation of project duration is important in construction projects, since it directly affects the costs and the success of the projects. Schedule risks can be determined along with the duration estimations in order to assess the possibility of delay penalties and additional costs. Therefore, the accuracy of the estimation of project duration range is very crucial in construction industry to assess the schedule risks. This thesis presents an integrated approach of non-parametric bootstrap sampling meth...
Citation Formats
S. Melik, “Cash flow analysis of construction projects using fuzzy set theory,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2010.