An integrated seismic loss estimation methodology: a case study in northwestern Turkey

Ün, Elif Müge
Future seismic losses including the physical, economic and social ones as well as casualties concern a wide range of authorities varying from geophysical and earthquake engineers, physical and economic planners to insurance companies. As its many components involve inherent uncertainties, a probabilistic approach is required to estimate seismic losses. This study aims to propose a probabilistic method for estimating seismic losses, and to predict the potential seismic loss for the residential buildings for a selected district in Bursa, which is a highly industrialized city in Northwestern Turkey. To verify the methodology against a past large event, loss estimations are initially performed for a district in Düzce, and the method is calibrated with loss data from the 12 November 1999 Düzce Earthquake. The main components of the proposed loss model are seismic hazard, building vulnerability functions and loss as a function of damage states of buildings. To quantify the regional hazard, a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approach is adopted. For different types of building structures, probability of exceeding predefined damage states for a given hazard level is determined using appropriate fragility curve sets. The casualty model for a given damage level considers the occupancy type, population of the building, occupancy at the time of earthquake occurrence, number of trapped occupants in the collapse, injury distribution at collapse and mortality post collapse. Economic loss is calculated by multiplying mean damage ratio with the total cost of initial construction. The proposed loss model combines these input components within a conditional probability approach. The results are expressed in terms of expected loss and losses caused by events with different return periods.


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Estimation of extreme seismic losses has been a major concern for the insurance sector. Especially, the recent series of large magnitude earthquakes have forced both the client and the insurance companies to obtain reliable estimates of potential seismic losses. Thus, seismic risk mapping has become a major task for the insurance industry. For seismic risk mapping it is necessary to develop a model which integrates the information on seismic hazard and the information on expected earthquake damage on engine...
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A probabilistic model is presented for the assessment of the earthquake insurance rates for important engineering structures, for which the seismic losses could be quite significant. The proposed model is used to estimate the earthquake insurance premiums for the structures taking place in the Bolu Mountain Crossing in the Gumusova-Gerede motorway Section, Turkey. The model requires two types of studies, namely: seismic hazard analysis and estimation of potential damage to structures based on damage probabi...
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Eastern Marmara and evaluation of Turkish Earthquake Code requirements
Ocak, Recai Soner; Gülerce, Zeynep; Department of Civil Engineering (2011)
The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard in the Eastern Marmara Region using improved seismic source models and enhanced ground motion prediction models by probabilistic approach. Geometry of the fault zones (length, width, dip angle, segmentation points etc.) is determined by the help of available fault maps and traced source lines on the satellite images. State of the art rupture model proposed by USGS Working Group in 2002 is applied to the source system. Composite reoccurren...
Citation Formats
E. M. Ün, “ An integrated seismic loss estimation methodology: a case study in northwestern Turkey ,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2011.