Estimation of potential earthquake losses for the evaluation of earthquake insurance risks

Download
2014
Karaca, Hakan
Estimation of extreme seismic losses has been a major concern for the insurance sector. Especially, the recent series of large magnitude earthquakes have forced both the client and the insurance companies to obtain reliable estimates of potential seismic losses. Thus, seismic risk mapping has become a major task for the insurance industry. For seismic risk mapping it is necessary to develop a model which integrates the information on seismic hazard and the information on expected earthquake damage on engineering facilities in a systematic way, yielding to estimates of the seismic risk. This study aims firstly establishing the most up to date seismic hazard mapping procedure based on the appropriate stochastic models. The conversion of the mapped seismic hazard information into risk metrics requires including data on the vulnerability to damage of the exposure at the location under consideration. Thus the second aim of the study is to establish probabilistic procedures for the estimation of the vulnerability of buildings subjected to earthquakes of different severity. Finally, a risk model will be developed to integrate the probabilistic understanding of the hazard with the exposure and vulnerability to arrive at mapped information on risk costs (i.e. annual expected losses) as well as loss exceedence at a range of return periods. Such an output will be of extreme use to the insurance companies in assessing the risks involved due to future earthquakes.

Suggestions

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for earthquake induced landslides
Balal, Onur; Gülerce, Zeynep; Department of Civil Engineering (2013)
Earthquake-induced slope instability is one of the major sources of earthquake hazards in near fault regions. Simplified tools, such as Newmark’s Sliding Block (NSB) Analysis are widely used to represent the stability of a slope under earthquake shaking. The outcome of this analogy is the slope displacement where larger displacement values indicate higher seismic slope instability risk. Recent studies in the literature propose empirical models between the slope displacement and single or multiple ground mot...
Prediction of potential seismic damage using classification and regression trees: a case study on earthquake damage databases from Turkey
Yerlikaya-Ozkurt, Fatma; Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2020-09-01)
Seismic damage estimation is an important key ingredient of seismic loss modeling, risk mitigation and disaster management. It is a problem involving inherent uncertainties and complexities. Thus, it is important to employ robust approaches which will handle the problem accurately. In this study, classification and regression tree approach is applied on damage data sets collected from reinforced concrete frame buildings after major previous earthquakes in Turkey. Four damage states ranging from None to Seve...
Prediction of potential damage due to severe earthquakes
Yücemen, Mehmet Semih; Pay, AC (2004-01-01)
A statistical model is developed to estimate the seismic vulnerability of low- to mid-rise reinforced concrete buildings. The model is based on a novel utilization of the discriminant analysis technique of multivariate statistics. Number of stories above the ground level (N), soft story index (SSI), overhang ratio (OHR), minimum normalized lateral stiffness index (MNLSTFI), minimum normalized lateral strength index (MNLSI) and normalized redundancy score (NRS) are selected as the basic estimation variables....
An integrated seismic loss estimation methodology: a case study in northwestern Turkey
Ün, Elif Müge; Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül; Erberik, Murat Altuğ; Department of Civil Engineering (2011)
Future seismic losses including the physical, economic and social ones as well as casualties concern a wide range of authorities varying from geophysical and earthquake engineers, physical and economic planners to insurance companies. As its many components involve inherent uncertainties, a probabilistic approach is required to estimate seismic losses. This study aims to propose a probabilistic method for estimating seismic losses, and to predict the potential seismic loss for the residential buildings for ...
The effect of disasters on development: Van and Bingol case studies
Gül, Tuğba; Başbuğ Erkan, Berna Burçak; Şenol Balaban, Meltem; Department of Earthquake Studies (2014)
The increase of the number of natural, technological and man-made disasters and economic losses due to disasters caused an increase in significance of the studies that investigate the relationship between disaster and development. Turkey has actualized many studies after the 1999 Marmara Earthquake, however, the focus of disaster policies are still concentrated on response and reconstruction/recovery stages of disaster. 2003 Bingöl and 2011 Van earthquakes showed that disasters still cause economic burden o...
Citation Formats
H. Karaca, “Estimation of potential earthquake losses for the evaluation of earthquake insurance risks,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2014.