Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Eastern Marmara and evaluation of Turkish Earthquake Code requirements

Ocak, Recai Soner
The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard in the Eastern Marmara Region using improved seismic source models and enhanced ground motion prediction models by probabilistic approach. Geometry of the fault zones (length, width, dip angle, segmentation points etc.) is determined by the help of available fault maps and traced source lines on the satellite images. State of the art rupture model proposed by USGS Working Group in 2002 is applied to the source system. Composite reoccurrence model is used for all seismic sources in the region to represent the characteristic behavior of North Anatolian Fault. New and improved global ground motion models (NGA models) are used to model the ground motion variability for this study. Previous studies, in general, used regional models or older ground motion prediction models which were updated by their developers during the NGA project. New NGA models were improved in terms of additional prediction parameters (such as depth of the source, basin effects, site dependent standard deviations, etc.), statistical approach, and very well constrained global database. The use of NGA models reduced the epistemic uncertainty in the total hazard incorporated by regional or older models using smaller datasets. The results of the study is presented in terms of hazard curves, deaggregation of the hazard and uniform hazard spectrum for six main locations in the region (Adapazari, Duzce, Golcuk, Izmit, Iznik, and Sapanca City Centers) to provide basis for seismic design of special structures in the area. Hazard maps of the region for rock site conditions at the accepted levels of risk by Turkish Earthquake Code (TEC-2007) are provided to allow the user perform site-specific hazard assessment for local site conditions and develop site-specific design spectrum. Comparison of TEC-2007 design spectrum with the uniform hazard spectrum developed for selected locations is also presented for future reference.


Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for east anatolian fault zone using planar source models
Menekşe, Akın; Gülerce, Zeynep; Department of Civil Engineering (2015)
The objective of this study is to perform probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) using planar seismic source characterization models for East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) and to update the design ground motions to be used in the region. Development of planar seismic source models requires the definition of source geometry in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane angles and segmentation points for each segment and associating the observed seismicity with defined fault systems. This complicat...
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Eastern Marmara Region
Gülerce, Zeynep (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2013-10-01)
The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard in Eastern Marmara Region using an improved probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology. Two significant improvements over the previous seismic hazard assessment practices are accomplished in this study: advanced seismic source characterization models in terms of source geometry and recurrence relationships are developed, and improved global ground motion models (NGA-W1 models) are employed to represent the ground motion variability. Plan...
Practical tools for ranking and selection of groundmotion prediction equations (GMPEs) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and development of a regional GMPE
Kale, Özkan; Akkar, Sinan; Danciu, Laurentiu; Department of Civil Engineering (2014)
This study starts summarizing the progresses in ground-motion databases and ground-motion models in pan-European region and consequent seismic hazard comparisons conducted for individual local and global predictive models. Then, the study presents the compilation of the Middle East region and Turkish ground-motion databases with principle seismological features to be mainly used in predictive model selection process in these regions. In the following step, using a high standard subset of the Middle East gro...
Spatial sensitivity of seismic hazard results to different background seismic activity and temporal earthquake occurrence models
Yilmaz, Nazan; Yücemen, Mehmet Semih (Elsevier BV, 2011-07-01)
Spatial sensitivity of seismic hazard results to different models with respect to background seismic activity and earthquake occurrence in time is investigated. For the contribution of background seismic activity to seismic hazard, background area source with uniform seismicity and spatially smoothed seismicity models are taken into consideration. For the contribution of faults, through characteristic earthquakes, both the memoryless Poisson and the time dependent renewal models are utilized. A case study, ...
Ground motion prediction equations based on simulated ground motions
Gür, Kader; Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül; Kale, Özkan; Department of Earthquake Studies (2018)
Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) are one of the key elements in seismic hazard assessment to estimate ground motion intensity measures by basically taking into account source, path and site effects. Most of the existing predictive models are derived from databases compiled from real (or observed) ground motion data. However, in data-poor regions, a novel practice to develop new GMPEs is to use simulated or hybrid ground motion datasets for performing reliable seismic hazard analysis. Simulations o...
Citation Formats
R. S. Ocak, “Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Eastern Marmara and evaluation of Turkish Earthquake Code requirements,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2011.