Short term industrial production forecasting for Turkey

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Date

2012

Author

Değerli, Ahmet

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This thesis aims to produce short-term forecasts for the economic activity in Turkey. As a proxy for the economic activity, industrial production index is used. Univariate autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models, vector autoregressive (VAR) models and combination forecasts method are utilized in a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting framework to obtain one-month ahead forecasts. To evaluate the models’ forecasting performances, the relative root mean square forecast error (RRMSFE) is calculated. Overall, results indicate that combining the VAR models with four endogenous variables yields the most substantial improvement in forecasting performance, relative to benchmark autoregressive (AR) model.

Subject Keywords

Industrial productivity, Factors of production, Industrialization, Production (Economic theory).

URI

http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12614689/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/21882

Collections

Graduate School of Social Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

A. Değerli, “Short term industrial production forecasting for Turkey,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2012.