Short term industrial production forecasting for Turkey

Download

index.pdf

Date

2012

Author

Değerli, Ahmet

Metadata

Show full item record

Item Usage Stats

251
views

110
downloads

This thesis aims to produce short-term forecasts for the economic activity in Turkey. As a proxy for the economic activity, industrial production index is used. Univariate autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models, vector autoregressive (VAR) models and combination forecasts method are utilized in a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting framework to obtain one-month ahead forecasts. To evaluate the models’ forecasting performances, the relative root mean square forecast error (RRMSFE) is calculated. Overall, results indicate that combining the VAR models with four endogenous variables yields the most substantial improvement in forecasting performance, relative to benchmark autoregressive (AR) model.

Subject Keywords

Industrial productivity, Factors of production, Industrialization, Production (Economic theory).

URI

http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12614689/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/21882

Collections

Graduate School of Social Sciences, Thesis

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Construction of an economic activity indicator for Turkey Çelgin, Aysu; Akbostancı Özkazanç, Elif; Department of Economics (2020-8) In this thesis, a monthly economic activity indicator is constructed for the Turkish economy for the period 1988-2020. Dynamic factor modelling framework is utilized in the estimation of the indicator because of being good at synthesizing macroeconomic variables into an indicator. Variables used in the estimation of the indicator are industrial production index, electricity production, total vehicles production, the volume of production over the past 3 months, real sector confidence index, import volume ind...
An Analysis of geographic and sectoral diversification using city and sector indices of Turkey Ayan, Hamdi; Soytaş, Uğur; Oran, Adil; Department of Business Administration (2015) This thesis examines the potentials of geographic and sectoral diversification in Turkey. A Causality in variance test suggested by Hafner and Herwartz is conducted in a pairwise fashion among city indices and among sector indices, separately, to explore the existence of diversification potential. All data are 5-day week daily time series and sourced from Borsa Istanbul. City index data covers the period January 2, 2009 between November 24, 2014, whereas sectoral index data covers the period April 1, 2004 a...
Macroeconomic Effects of Information and Communication Technologies in Turkey and Other OECD Member Countries Karagöl, Burak; Erdil, Erkan (Science And Technology Policies Research Center, Middle East Technical University (Ankara, Turkey), 2012) This paper investigates the effects of ICT on economic growth in Turkey and other OECD member countries. After discussing the theoretical relationships between ICT usage and economic growth, we test the positive impact of ICT revolution on economic growth econometrically. In the empirical part of the study, we perform panel data analyses by employing data sets that belong to 30 OECD member countries for 1999-2008 period as well as carrying out time series analyses for only Turkey by using data between 1980 ...
Finance of the software industry in Turkey Sakınç, Mustafa Erdem; Başaran Özdemir, Funda; Department of Science and Technology Policy Studies (2009) This thesis aims to explore the challenges of ICT industries to have access to financial sources in Turkey. The specific subject of analysis is the Turkish software industry. First, it is identified that the global course of the science and technology policies and economic developments are intertwined and they are the major determinants of the current situation of high-tech sectors and their finance all over the world. The importance of finance is based on its association with the innovativeness of high-tec...
Spatial econometric analysis of regional growth and employment convergence in Turkey Akçagün, Pelin; Öcal, Nadir; Department of Economics (2015) The main objective of this thesis is to investigate how spatial interactions across the provinces and regions may affect the regional growth and employment convergence in Turkey. The overall outcomes suggest not only the validity but also the superiority of the spatial econometric models. First, a comprehensive set of spatial cross-sectional models is employed to reveal the provincial growth convergence from 1991 to 2009. The results suggest evidences of absolute and conditional convergence across provinces...

Citation Formats

A. Değerli, “Short term industrial production forecasting for Turkey,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2012.