Show/Hide Menu
Hide/Show Apps
Logout
Türkçe
Türkçe
Search
Search
Login
Login
OpenMETU
OpenMETU
About
About
Open Science Policy
Open Science Policy
Open Access Guideline
Open Access Guideline
Postgraduate Thesis Guideline
Postgraduate Thesis Guideline
Communities & Collections
Communities & Collections
Help
Help
Frequently Asked Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
Guides
Guides
Thesis submission
Thesis submission
MS without thesis term project submission
MS without thesis term project submission
Publication submission with DOI
Publication submission with DOI
Publication submission
Publication submission
Supporting Information
Supporting Information
General Information
General Information
Copyright, Embargo and License
Copyright, Embargo and License
Contact us
Contact us
Construction of an economic activity indicator for Turkey
Download
12625599.pdf
Date
2020-8
Author
Çelgin, Aysu
Metadata
Show full item record
Item Usage Stats
304
views
130
downloads
Cite This
In this thesis, a monthly economic activity indicator is constructed for the Turkish economy for the period 1988-2020. Dynamic factor modelling framework is utilized in the estimation of the indicator because of being good at synthesizing macroeconomic variables into an indicator. Variables used in the estimation of the indicator are industrial production index, electricity production, total vehicles production, the volume of production over the past 3 months, real sector confidence index, import volume index, non-farm employment, credit stock, CDS and GDP. Data selection is done with the help of the hard-thresholding method. In this context, first of all, the variables are categorized into five types as: activity (hard data), activity (survey-based data or soft data), trade, employment and financial variables. After determining the candidate variables for each category, data selection is finalized by using the hard-thresholding method. The results indicate that our monthly economic activity indicator is successful in detecting the past recessionary periods of the Turkish economy and providing timelier information about the course of economic activity.
Subject Keywords
Economic Activity
,
Dynamic Factor Model
,
Hard-Thresholding
,
Real Time Analysis
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/68985
Collections
Graduate School of Social Sciences, Thesis
Suggestions
OpenMETU
Core
Construction of an Economic Activity Indicator for Turkey
Celgin, Aysu; Akbostancı Özkazanç, Elif (2021-09-01)
In this paper, a monthly economic activity indicator is constructed for the Turkish economy for the period of 1988-2020. A dynamic factor modeling framework is utilized in the process. The variables are first categorized into five types as activity (hard data), activity (survey-based data or soft data), trade, employment, and financial variables. After determining the candidate variables for each category, data selection is finalized by using the hard-thresholding method. Results indicate that our monthly e...
Short term industrial production forecasting for Turkey
Değerli, Ahmet; Yıldırım Kasap, Dilem; Department of Economics (2012)
This thesis aims to produce short-term forecasts for the economic activity in Turkey. As a proxy for the economic activity, industrial production index is used. Univariate autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models, vector autoregressive (VAR) models and combination forecasts method are utilized in a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting framework to obtain one-month ahead forecasts. To evaluate the models’ forecasting performances, the relative root mean square forecast error (RRMSFE) is calculated. Overall, r...
Patent applications/grants and their economic analysis for Turkey
Gökovalı, Ummuhan; Türel, Oktar; Department of Economics (2003)
The basic aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between patents and some economic variables at sectoral level for Turkish economy for the period 1985-98. In order to classify patent data into a sectoral classification system, we employed two concordances, namely, YTC and MERIT. The study includes three distinct empirical analyses. The first one analyzes the contribution of knowledge stock to industry-level productivity in Turkey. Our preferred method is GMM-System estimation, results of which...
Institutional Environment, Economic Performance and Innovation in Turkey
Erdil, Erkan; Pamukcu, Mehmet Teoman (2015-01-01)
This paper investigates the relationship between economic performance and innovation in Turkey, while also taking into account the crucial mediating effect of the institutional environment. We carry out an in-depth analysis of the recent shifts in STI policy-making in Turkey. The emphasis is on the innovation support policy instruments, and their effectiveness, as well as on the formulation of national STI targets, sector priorities and targets in the field of human resources. A number of concerns are expre...
The Relationship between unemployment rate and growth: time series approach for Turkey
Akpiliç, Ferdi; Yozgatlıgil, Ceylan; Department of Statistics (2016)
This study analyzes the relationship of economic growth and unemployment by using quarterly data for the period 2005:Q1-2016:Q1 for Turkish Economy. Three different versions of Okun’s law which are difference, gap and dynamic versions are investigated in the study. According to results, it is found that Okun’s Law is valid for Turkey. In addition, productivity variable is added to dynamic models to test effect of productivity on unemployment rate and models results reveal positive relationship between produ...
Citation Formats
IEEE
ACM
APA
CHICAGO
MLA
BibTeX
A. Çelgin, “Construction of an economic activity indicator for Turkey,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2020.