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Modeling electricity demand in Turkey for 1998-2011
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Date
2013
Author
Sayın, İpek
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This thesis estimates the quarterly electricity demand of Turkey. First of all proper seasonal time series model are found for the variables: electricity demand, temperature, gross domestic product and electricity price. After the right seasonal time series model are found Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990) test is applied to each variable. The results of the test show that seasonal unit roots exist for the electricity price even it cannot be seen at the graph. The other variables have no seasonal unit roots when the proper seasonal time series model is chosen. Later, the cointegration is tested by looking at the vector autoregressive model. As the cointegration is seen vector error correction model is found. There is long-run equilibrium when the price is the dependent variable and independent variable is gross domestic product. Temperature is taken as exogenous variable and demand is not statistically significant.
Subject Keywords
Electric power consumption
,
Power resources
,
Energy consumption
URI
http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12615515/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/22505
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Graduate School of Social Sciences, Thesis
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İ. Sayın, “Modeling electricity demand in Turkey for 1998-2011,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2013.
