Modeling electricity demand in Turkey for 1998-2011

Sayın, İpek
This thesis estimates the quarterly electricity demand of Turkey. First of all proper seasonal time series model are found for the variables: electricity demand, temperature, gross domestic product and electricity price. After the right seasonal time series model are found Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990) test is applied to each variable. The results of the test show that seasonal unit roots exist for the electricity price even it cannot be seen at the graph. The other variables have no seasonal unit roots when the proper seasonal time series model is chosen. Later, the cointegration is tested by looking at the vector autoregressive model. As the cointegration is seen vector error correction model is found. There is long-run equilibrium when the price is the dependent variable and independent variable is gross domestic product. Temperature is taken as exogenous variable and demand is not statistically significant.


Long term electrical supply-demand balance of Turkey (2013-2023)
Polater, Hüseyin Murat; Sevaioğlu, Osman; Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering (2013)
In this thesis long term supply demand balance of Turkey is studied. Initially long term electrical energy demand and peak power demand forecasts are made. For forecasting, two different methods are used. First method is Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and second method is Time Series Method. Then electrical energy demand forecast by sector is done. Finally by considering the construction times of new generation plants, electrical energy production capacity and peak power production capacity projections ar...
Demand, supply and partial equilibrium analysis of electricity energy pricing for Turkish market
Özdemir, Asena; Kestel, Sevtap Ayşe; Department of Actuarial Sciences (2013)
Electricity energy is a fundamental commodity for all sectors of the economy. For this reason, estimating the factors and their impacts on electricity consumption and production are important to maintain sustainability in electricity energy market. The aim of the study is to determine the association between main macroeconomic and sectorial indicators with electricity consumption and production. For estimating electricity demand, annual electricity consumption, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), electricity tran...
Short term electricity price forecasting in Turkish electricity market
Özgüner, Erdem; Güven, Ali Nezih; Tör, O. Bülent; Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering (2012)
With the aim for higher economical efficiency, considerable and radical changes have occurred in the worldwide electricity sector since the beginning of 1980s. By that time, the electricity sector has been controlled by the state-owned vertically integrated monopolies which manage and control all generation, transmission, distribution and retail activities and the consumers buy electricity with a price set by these monopolies in that system. After the liberalization and restructuring of the electricity powe...
Measuring the efficiency of the turkish electric distribution sector using stochastic frontier analysis
Çelen, Aydın; İyigün, Cem; Department of Industrial Engineering (2011)
This study analyzes the technical efficiencies of Turkish electricity distribution companies (21 in total) throughout 2002 and 2009. For this aim, we used six different model specifications, all of which are generated from two different Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) models (Battese ve Coelli (1992&1995)). At the end of the estimations of the models, it has been seen that the signs and significance levels of the coefficient estimations are very consistent and satisfactory in all models. We also observed...
Mathematical modeling and solution approaches for balancing Turkish electricity day ahead market
Yörükoğlu, Sinan; Avşar, Zeynep Müge; Kat, Bora; Department of Industrial Engineering (2015)
In the Turkish Electricity Market, electricity trade is carried out largely through Bilateral Agreements and the emerging short term imbalances are settled in the Balancing Power Market, particularly the Day Ahead Market. In the Day Ahead Market, the participants submit their bids for each hour of the next day in the form of price-quantity pairs and the Market Operator evaluates those bids using an optimization tool. After the evaluation of the bids, a Market Clearing Price at every hour of the next day and...
Citation Formats
İ. Sayın, “Modeling electricity demand in Turkey for 1998-2011,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2013.