Long term electrical supply-demand balance of Turkey (2013-2023)

Download

index.pdf

Date

2013

Author

Polater, Hüseyin Murat

Metadata

Show full item record

Item Usage Stats

61
views

27
downloads

In this thesis long term supply demand balance of Turkey is studied. Initially long term electrical energy demand and peak power demand forecasts are made. For forecasting, two different methods are used. First method is Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and second method is Time Series Method. Then electrical energy demand forecast by sector is done. Finally by considering the construction times of new generation plants, electrical energy production capacity and peak power production capacity projections are done. By comparing the capacity projection with demand forecast, long term supply demand balance of Turkey is examined

Subject Keywords

Electric power consumption, Energy consumption, Neural networks (Computer science)., Time-series analysis.

URI

http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12616134/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/22692

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Modeling electricity demand in Turkey for 1998-2011 Sayın, İpek; Gaygısız Lajunen, Esma; Department of Economics (2013) This thesis estimates the quarterly electricity demand of Turkey. First of all proper seasonal time series model are found for the variables: electricity demand, temperature, gross domestic product and electricity price. After the right seasonal time series model are found Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990) test is applied to each variable. The results of the test show that seasonal unit roots exist for the electricity price even it cannot be seen at the graph. The other variables have no seasonal uni...
Statistical analysis of electricity energy consumption with respect to provinces in Turkey Çakmak, Mehmet; Yozgatlıgil, Ceylan; İlk Dağ, Özlem; Department of Statistics (2014) In recent years, the economic developments in Turkey, rapid increase in population and industrialization and such factors have led to an increment in the demand for electricity in Turkey. Therefore; the accurate estimation of electricity consumption will be important in determining the country's energy strategy. The purpose of this study is to forecast the future electricity energy consumption by acquiring the most consistent and accurate forecast models of the provinces in Turkey by using the fixed effects...
Agricultural imports of Turkey Durusu Çitfçi, Dilek; Akder, Ahmet Halis; Department of Economics (2011) This thesis analyses the agricultural import demand of Turkey for the period 1993-2009. The main objective of the thesis is to assess the reason for the rapid increase in imports. Turkey has a trade surplus since 1993, yet, imports have surged since 2001. In this study import demand has been analyzed descriptively i.e., the developments in foreign trade have been described by the help of available, official trade statistics. Increasing population, economic growth (income) and overvalued exchange rate are am...
Analysis of inflation dynamics in Turkey: a New Keynesian Phillips Curve approach Eruygur, Ayşegül; Erlat, Haluk; Department of Economics (2011) The main aim of this thesis is to explain the inflation dynamics in Turkey within a theoretically consistent empirical framework. The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) is chosen as the basis model for our analysis because, by describing the inflation process within an intertemporal optimizing dynamic general equilibrium model, it provides a rigorous analytical groundwork for credible welfare and policy analysis. We have contributed to the literature by developing a NKPC formulation that is novel in the li...
Short term industrial production forecasting for Turkey Değerli, Ahmet; Yıldırım Kasap, Dilem; Department of Economics (2012) This thesis aims to produce short-term forecasts for the economic activity in Turkey. As a proxy for the economic activity, industrial production index is used. Univariate autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models, vector autoregressive (VAR) models and combination forecasts method are utilized in a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting framework to obtain one-month ahead forecasts. To evaluate the models’ forecasting performances, the relative root mean square forecast error (RRMSFE) is calculated. Overall, r...

Citation Formats

H. M. Polater, “Long term electrical supply-demand balance of Turkey (2013-2023),” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2013.