Statistical modeling of hourly electricity load series in Turkey

Özpala, Pınar
This study investigates Heterogeneous Double Seasonal ARIMA model, Heterogeneous Periodic AR model and a nonlinear model of Multiple Regime Logistic STAR model by application of hourly electricity load data between years 2006-2007 in Turkey. Forecast results suggest that Heterogeneous Double Seasonal ARIMA model is the best among three methods forecasting up to one day.


Beforehand obtaining a safety operation condition by using daily load curves in transient stability and graphical software for transient stability applications
Öztop, Celal; Ertaş, Arif; Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering (2005)
In this thesis, relationship between two most important transient stability indices, critical clearing time and generator rotor angle is examined for one machine-infinite bus system and then extended to the multimachine case and is observed to be linear. By using the linear relationship between critical clearing time and generator rotor angle and utilizing the daily load curve, a new preventive method is proposed. The aim of this method is to make all critical clearing times longer than the relay and circui...
Measuring the efficiency of the turkish electric distribution sector using stochastic frontier analysis
Çelen, Aydın; İyigün, Cem; Department of Industrial Engineering (2011)
This study analyzes the technical efficiencies of Turkish electricity distribution companies (21 in total) throughout 2002 and 2009. For this aim, we used six different model specifications, all of which are generated from two different Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) models (Battese ve Coelli (1992&1995)). At the end of the estimations of the models, it has been seen that the signs and significance levels of the coefficient estimations are very consistent and satisfactory in all models. We also observed...
Determination of optimum values for voltage setpoints of power stations in Turkey
Elma, İsmail; Güven, Ali Nezih; Tör, Osman Bülent; Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering (2014)
Voltage control is performed in three hierarchical levels in Turkish power system: primary, secondary and tertiary voltage control. Primary and secondary voltage controls are defined as the regulation of the voltage at the generator terminal and at the high voltage busbar of the power plant according to the pre-determined setpoints. The determination of the voltage setpoints for the power plants, which is defined as the tertiary voltage control, is performed by the operators in National and Regional Load Di...
Series active filter design, control, and implementation with a novel load voltage harmonic extraction method
Şentürk, Osman Selçuk; Hava, Ahmet Masum; Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering (2007)
Series Active Filters (SAF) are designed for harmonic isolation and load voltage regulation of single-phase and three-phase voltage harmonic source type nonlinear loads. The novel Absolute Value Method (AVM) for load voltage harmonic extraction is proposed and applied in the control algorithm of SAF. The SAF compensated systems are represented by simplified linear models such that SAF controller gains can be easily determined. Harmonic isolation and load voltage regulation performances of 2.5 kW single-phas...
Short term electricity price forecasting in Turkish electricity market
Özgüner, Erdem; Güven, Ali Nezih; Tör, O. Bülent; Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering (2012)
With the aim for higher economical efficiency, considerable and radical changes have occurred in the worldwide electricity sector since the beginning of 1980s. By that time, the electricity sector has been controlled by the state-owned vertically integrated monopolies which manage and control all generation, transmission, distribution and retail activities and the consumers buy electricity with a price set by these monopolies in that system. After the liberalization and restructuring of the electricity powe...
Citation Formats
P. Özpala, “Statistical modeling of hourly electricity load series in Turkey,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2013.