Climate change, agriculture and trade policy: CGE analyses at regional, national and global level

Download

index.pdf

Date

2013

Author

Dudu, Hasan

Metadata

Show full item record

Item Usage Stats

282
views

142
downloads

This thesis investigates the effects of climate change on the Turkish economy by using computable general equilibrium (CGE) models at regional, national and global level. The physical impact of climate change is first translated into yield and irrigation requirement shocks by using a crop-hydrology model developed for this study. Then these are introduced into the CGE models as productivity shocks to investigate their effects on the overall economy. Simulation results suggest that climate change will come into play after 2035, and its effects on the economy will get worse after 2060. The final economic effects at regional and global levels will depend on the location and structure of agricultural production. Trade liberalization is considered as a policy response to contain the negative impact of the climate change. The results indicate that trade liberalization helps, but the positive effects are limited. International trade plays a key role in the response of the economy to the climate change shocks. Trade liberalization with the European Union is found to have positive effects on welfare of households, however these effects are low compared to the harm caused by climate change. Moreover, it was also noted that these positive effects increased as climate change effects are worsened. At the global level, the simulation results suggest that there is a significant uncertainty about the impact of climate change on the global economy. The effects are not homogenous for different regions of the world or different sectors in a region. On the other hand, effects of trade liberalization are not affected by the uncertainty in the climate change scenarios. Our results suggest that adverse effects of climate change on welfare can be alleviated by trade liberalization in most parts of the world.

Subject Keywords

International economic relations., Climatic changes, Climatic changes, Agriculture, Computable general equilibrium models.

URI

http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12616668/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/23185

Collections

Graduate School of Social Sciences, Thesis

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

The Impact of climate change on agricultural production in Mediterranean countries Atay, Mehmet Ufuk; Sarı, Ramazan; Yücel, İsmail; Department of Earth System Science (2015) The aim of the study is to determine the impact of climate change on agriculture for Mediterranean countries by employing vulnerability and econometric analysis. At first step, a composite agricultural vulnerability index is created by principal component analysis (PCA) for Mediterranean counties and world’s top 35 cereal producer countries. Then, based on index scores, countries are grouped by cluster analysis. Several indicators are selected from different international databases according to three compon...
Climate change policies of Germany, China, The United States and Turkey: a comparative analysis Okutan, Ebru; Tanrısever, Oktay Fırat; Department of International Relations (2018) This thesis explores the climate change policies of Germany, China, the United States and Turkey and subsequently provide a comparative perspective on climate change policies before and after the Paris Agreement. The core research question is how policies on global climate change were shaped before and after the Paris Agreement, regarding their triggering points during the process of shaping recent environmental regimes. Regarding this question, the main argument of this thesis is that even climate change p...
Roles of domestic and international factors in climate change policy making Koşan, Ezgi; Tanrısever, Oktay Fırat; Department of International Relations (2019) This thesis maps domestic and international factors which are influential on the international climate change politics of countries. Moreover, it seeks an answer to the question of “why domestic factors such as climate change vulnerability and policy readiness are not sufficient to explain the climate change policies of countries?” Based on the review of the existing literature and research of this dissertation, the main argument of the thesis will be as follows: Contrary to the views considering the primac...
Russia’s policies on climate change negotiations : in search of a decisive role? Koşan, Ezgi; Tanrısever, Oktay Fırat; Department of Eurasian Studies (2014) This thesis analyzes the climate change policies of Russia in order to identify the dynamics behind its strategies with respect to post-2020 climate change regime. Contrary to the views of scholars who consider Russia’s position on climate change as low profile, this thesis argues that Russia seeks to play a decisive role in the formation of a new regime on climate change since it is able to assume new responsibilities and able to adopt its economic structure to a low carbon emission model. In addition to e...
Energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon emissions: Challenges faced by an EU candidate member Soytaş, Uğur; Sarı, Ramazan (2009-04-15) This paper investigates the long run Granger causality relationship between economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in Turkey, controlling for gross fixed capital formation and labor. The most interesting result is that carbon emissions seem to Granger cause energy consumption, but the reverse is not true. The lack of a long run causal link between income and emissions may be implying that to reduce carbon emissions, Turkey does not have to forgo economic growth.

Citation Formats

H. Dudu, “Climate change, agriculture and trade policy: CGE analyses at regional, national and global level,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2013.