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Tsunami hazard analysis for Güllük Bay

Acar, Sena
The deterministic and probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis is one of the primary issues for disaster management and the determination mitigation strategies. Güllük bay (Turkey) located in southern Aegean Sea is selected as the study region to evaluate the effects of probable tsunami waves in the region. The critical structures in Güllük bay are aquaculture facilities, commercial port, marinas, airport and small size waterfront structures at touristic centers. The seismic and non-seismic sources are processed using the available data. The estimated rupture parameters of seismic sources and dimensional parameters of non-seismic sources are used in simulations in deterministic approach. The seismic data based on seismic monitoring between 1950-2014 is used and the earthquake magnitudes which may occur in 100, 500, 1000 years return periods are computed statistically by extreme value analysis in probabilistic approach. The related rupture parameters have been determined due to the rupture parameters measured in past earthquakes in the region. Tsunami simulations due to selected rupture parameters of different return periods are performed by using tsunami numerical code NAMI DANCE. The near shore tsunami parameters (maximums of water elevations, current velocities, momentum fluxes, discharge fluxes, flow depth) are computed. Simulation results for each tsunami scenario are compared, discussed and presented in regard to tsunami hazard analysis for Güllük bay.