Impact assessment of vision 2023 technology foresight in defense sector

Burhan, Mukaddes
This thesis was conducted in the scope of impact analysis of technology foresight intervention which was conducted to influence policies and decisions to benefit from sience and technology to create a knowledge society and innovative economy. The first objective is to assess the long-term ex-post impact of Vision 2023 technology foresight in defense sector. The second objective is the development of a model to assess the impact. An impact assessment scale was developed by implementing program-based theory and qualitative-quantitative analysis methods. The impact types of the scale are; Influencing, Awareness Raising and Informing, Enabling, Cooperation between Government-University-Industry, and Foresight Culture. “Influencing” has the highest weighting score. The total impact level is measured as “Some Contribution” with 3.04 out of 5.0 score. Selection and approval of research and development projects were influenced by the foresight program. Some cultural impact and awareness increase on science technology and innovation, and foresight are achieved. The technology foresight had some contribution to the increase of long-term planning activities, development and use of technology taxonomies, the increase in use of foresight techniques. Establishment of a high rank committee as the sponsor of the foresight, and assignment of Undersecretariat for Defense Industry for the success of technology foresight are recommended to overcome the lack of ownership, commitment, and monitoring and evaluation of technology foresight. An impact assessment model is developed based on Capability Maturity Model for Integration at macro level. The staged process improvement principles, and process area approach are benefitted in the development of the model.


Impact assessment of Vision 2023 defense technology foresight
Burhan, Mukaddes; Çakır, Serhat (2021-01-01)
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to provide information about the long-term ex-post impacts of Vision 2023 technology foresight (TF) on the defense sector and to identify critical success factors (CSFs) of impactful foresight.
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Citation Formats
M. Burhan, “Impact assessment of vision 2023 technology foresight in defense sector,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2018.