Show/Hide Menu
Hide/Show Apps
Logout
Türkçe
Türkçe
Search
Search
Login
Login
OpenMETU
OpenMETU
About
About
Open Science Policy
Open Science Policy
Communities & Collections
Communities & Collections
Help
Help
Frequently Asked Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
Guides
Guides
Thesis submission
Thesis submission
MS without thesis term project submission
MS without thesis term project submission
Publication submission with DOI
Publication submission with DOI
Publication submission
Publication submission
Supporting Information
Supporting Information
General Information
General Information
Copyright, Embargo and License
Copyright, Embargo and License
Contact us
Contact us
Effects of numerical weather predictions on wind power forecasts
Download
index.pdf
Date
2018
Author
Işık Çetin, İrem
Metadata
Show full item record
Item Usage Stats
286
views
152
downloads
Cite This
Wind energy investments are rapidly increasing in Turkey. The prediction of the electrical power generated from the wind is also gaining importance in this field because of the complexity of meteorological parameter wind. In this context, Wind Energy Monitoring and Forecasting Center (RITM) project has been initiated within the scope of the General Directorate of Renewable Energy (YEGM), in 2010. The final hourly wind energy predictions are generated by using the combination of the production data from Wind Power Plants and different numerical weather prediction models with this project. In this Thesis Study, 6 Wind Power Plants are selected according to their high wind potential and their terrain structure (complex or flat) from 3 geographical regions (Marmara, Mediterranean, Aegean) in Turkey. The terrain structures of Wind Power Plants are determined by using Geographical Information System Models which give two maps: digital elevation and roughness. The long term (3-4 year) observed wind speed data of the wind power plants from each region are compared with 3 different Meso Scale Numerical Weather Forecast Model (ECMWF, GFS, ALADIN) outputs and final wind power predictions which mean a combination of RITM power forecast system, compared to actual energy productions. The analyses are made for diurnal, seasonal, monthly basis and different grid points that belongs to each NWP model. Obtained results which is determined by using RMSE, bias and Correlation Coefficients for each time scales are used for determining best grid points for each model. This study aims to compare the performance of each Numerical Weather Prediction Models in the RITM system which has different terrain and climate structures, at different time scales and at different energy thresholds. In addition to numerical weather prediction analysis, Turkish Electricity Market prices according to Renewable Energy Supporting Mechanism and Day Ahead Market Prices have also been calculated for 6 wind power plants in this study in order to research effects of wind power forecasts to the income and market prices. It is foreseen that the study will research and analyze the performance of different numerical weather forecasts in the wind forecasting system of different climate and terrain conditions and importance of wind power forecasts in electricity market.
Subject Keywords
Wind power.
,
Renewable energy sources.
,
Wind power
URI
http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12622306/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/27490
Collections
Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis
Suggestions
OpenMETU
Core
Optimisation of the Tigris river hydropower system operations
Yalçın, Emrah; Tiğrek, Şahnaz; Department of Civil Engineering (2015)
Growing external energy dependence and rising oil prices are encouraging Turkey to turn to renewable energy, especially hydropower. The amended legislation on the transference of the operational rights of existing, under-construction and planned hydropower plants to the private sector and the allocation of water right licenses to develop new projects for electricity production has led to a drastic decrease of the public share in production. Consequently, conflicts related to the operation of reservoirs have...
Determination of wind power potential and optimal wind power plant locations in Turkey
Çetinay, Hale; Güven, Ali Nezih; Tör, Osman Bülent; Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering (2014)
Due to increased environmental concerns, utilization of the renewable energy, especially the wind power, gains importance. Like developed countries which have set their renewable energy targets for the long term integration, Turkish government has also set the goal as 20 GW of total wind power installed capacity in 2023. In this thesis, the wind power potential in Turkey is analyzed and different cases are studied to determine optimal locations for wind power plant establishment. In order to determine the w...
Reducing the cost of electric transmission and distribution systems with wind generation by means of energy storage and demand side management
Bildirici, Mert; Keysan, Ozan; Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering (2018)
Today, wind energy is the most popular renewable energy source and share of wind generation in overall electric power generation is expected to grow significantly for the next years. Considering this increase, energy balance problem will become harder to achieve due to unpredictable and varying nature of wind power. In order to handle with the negative impacts of wind power, it is essential to provide flexibility to power systems. This thesis focuses on the transmission system upgrade deferral for a hypothe...
Stochastic wind-thermal generation coordination for Turkish day-ahead electricity market /
Aydoğdu, Aycan; Güven, Ali Nezih; Tör, Osman Bülent; Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering (2014)
Uncertainties in wind power forecast, day-ahead and imbalance prices for the next day possess a great deal of risk to the profit of generation companies (GENCOs) participating in a day-ahead electricity market. GENCOs are exposed to imbalance penalties in the balancing market for any mismatch between their day-ahead power bids and real-time generations. Proper coordination of wind generation with thermal generation reduces this risk associated with wind uncertainty. This thesis proposes an optimal bidding a...
Numerical simulations of wind turbine wake interactions using actuator line and les models
Önel, Hüseyin Can; Tuncer, İsmail Hakkı; Department of Aerospace Engineering (2019)
Wind is one of the most promising renewable energy resources of the future. After years of optimization studies, Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines shine out as the most efficient type and have been the only model used in large scale commercial wind farms. Layout planning plays an important role in getting the most power out of a wind farm as much as turbine blade design. Most important parameter in this planning phase is the inevitable wake generated by rotors and its impact on other wind turbines which results...
Citation Formats
IEEE
ACM
APA
CHICAGO
MLA
BibTeX
İ. Işık Çetin, “Effects of numerical weather predictions on wind power forecasts,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2018.
