Ground motion prediction equations based on simulated ground motions

Gür, Kader
Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) are one of the key elements in seismic hazard assessment to estimate ground motion intensity measures by basically taking into account source, path and site effects. Most of the existing predictive models are derived from databases compiled from real (or observed) ground motion data. However, in data-poor regions, a novel practice to develop new GMPEs is to use simulated or hybrid ground motion datasets for performing reliable seismic hazard analysis. Simulations obtained from stochastic, deterministic or hybrid methods can provide reliable ground motion estimates and assist to understand the mechanisms of the earthquakes. This study starts with a discussion on the theory of stochastic finitefault technique and the simulation process including source mechanisms, site and path effect parameters from the 1992 Erzincan (Mw 6.6) and the 1999 Duzce (Mw 7.1) earthquakes. Then the development of the regional GMPEs based on the synthetic database compiled from the Erzincan and Duzce earthquake simulations is presented. The proposed predictive model is evaluated by residual analysis under the synthetic model development database and the recorded Turkish ground motion database. The trends of the proposed ground motion model are also compared to the existing regional, local and global GMPEs. These comparisons indicate a good agreement which is promising in the sense that the simulated ground motions can be contributed to the future development of GMPEs.


Development of site specific vertical design spectrum for Turkey
Akyüz, Emre; Gülerce, Zeynep; Department of Civil Engineering (2013)
Vertical design spectra may be developed in a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) by computing the hazard using vertical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs), or using a vertical-to-horizontal spectral acceleration (V/H) ratio GMPEs to scale the horizontal spectrum that was developed using the results of horizontal component PSHA. The objective of this study is to provide GMPEs that are compatible with regional ground motion characteristics to perform both alternatives. GMPEs for the V/H ra...
Hybrid-Empirical Ground Motion Estimations for Georgia
Tsereteli, Nino; Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül; Hamzehloo, Hossein (2016-10-01)
Ground motion prediction equations are essential for several purposes ranging from seismic design and analysis to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. In seismically active regions without sufficiently strong ground motion data to build empirical models, hybrid models become vital. Georgia does not have sufficiently strong ground motion data to build empirical models. In this study, we have applied the host-totarget method in two regions in Georgia with different source mechanisms. According to the tect...
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Eastern Marmara and evaluation of Turkish Earthquake Code requirements
Ocak, Recai Soner; Gülerce, Zeynep; Department of Civil Engineering (2011)
The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard in the Eastern Marmara Region using improved seismic source models and enhanced ground motion prediction models by probabilistic approach. Geometry of the fault zones (length, width, dip angle, segmentation points etc.) is determined by the help of available fault maps and traced source lines on the satellite images. State of the art rupture model proposed by USGS Working Group in 2002 is applied to the source system. Composite reoccurren...
Investigation of seismic isolation efficiency for building structures
Özdemir, Seda; Yakut, Ahmet; Ay, Bekir Özer; Department of Earthquake Studies (2016)
The main goal of this study is to assess the efficacy of seismic isolation for building type of structures with different structural systems, namely, dual systems and moment frame systems having also different number of floors. Specific to this study, the main parameters employed for efficacy assessment will be the interstorey drift ratio and floor acceleration since both structural and non-structural damage to be occured in a system are directly related to these two parameters. To assess the variations in inter...
Yücemen, Mehmet Semih (1994-03-01)
Demarcation of areal and linear seismic sources involves a certain degree of uncertainty and this should be reflected in the final seismic hazard results. The uncertainty associated with the description of the geographical coordinates of a source zone boundary is modeled by introducing the concept of 'random boundary', where the location of the boundary is assumed to exhibit a spatial bivariate Gaussian distribution. Here the mean vector denotes the best estimate of location and the variance reflects the ma...
Citation Formats
K. Gür, “Ground motion prediction equations based on simulated ground motions,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2018.