Sensitivity of seismic hazard results to alternative seismic source and magnitude-recurrence models: a case study for Jordan

Yilmaz, Nazan
Yücemen, Mehmet Semih
Influence of different models and assumptions with respect to seismic source modelling and magnitude distribution on seismic hazard results is examined, taking Jordan as a case study. Four alternative models, which are based on different combinations of seismic source models and magnitude-recurrence relationships, are considered. Seismic hazard curves obtained at four different sites in Jordan according to these four models are compared. In order to display the magnitude of spatial variation of peak ground acceleration (PGA) values obtained from these models, difference maps for return periods of 475 and 2475years are constructed. Logic tree method is applied to aggregate the results calculated based on different models and assumptions. Then, best estimate seismic hazard maps for PGA and spectral acceleration at 0.2 and 1.0s corresponding to return periods of 475 and 2475years are plotted.


Yücemen, Mehmet Semih (1994-03-01)
Demarcation of areal and linear seismic sources involves a certain degree of uncertainty and this should be reflected in the final seismic hazard results. The uncertainty associated with the description of the geographical coordinates of a source zone boundary is modeled by introducing the concept of 'random boundary', where the location of the boundary is assumed to exhibit a spatial bivariate Gaussian distribution. Here the mean vector denotes the best estimate of location and the variance reflects the ma...
Fault-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the eastern Makran subduction and the Chaman transform fault, Pakistan: Emphasis on the source characterization of megathrust
Shah, Syed Tanvir; Özacar, Atilla Arda; Gülerce, Zeynep (Elsevier BV, 2021-01-01)
Seismic source characterization (SSC) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in regions characterized by subduction megathrust involves a considerable ambiguity. Lack of detailed geologic, seismic, and geodetic data increases the uncertainties. The enigma is enhanced in regions where thin-skinned accretionary prism faults are part of active deformation. In this study, a planar SSC model for seismically active eastern Makran subduction zone, its associated accretionary prism faults and Chaman tra...
Predicting intensity and damage distribution during the 1995 Dinar, Turkey, earthquake with generated strong motion accelerograms
Sucuoğlu, Haluk; Zeng, YH (2003-06-01)
A source model for the 1995 Dinar earthquake that is capable of reproducing reasonably well the statistical characteristics of observed strong motion records is used to generate synthetic ground-motion accelerograms at 29 different sites along five east-west cross sections in the city. Each section crosses a distribution of topographical, geotechnical, and damage characteristics. All synthetic stations are located within a circle of approximately 4-km diameter, and a segment of the ruptured fault extends in...
The Effects of Implementing Different Ground-motionLogic-tree Frameworks on Seismic Risk Assessment
Ay, Bekir Özer (null; 2018-06-21)
This study investigates the link between probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and corresponding loss estimations by using different ground-motion logic-tree frameworks from reliable large scale seismic hazard projects as well as the logic-tree framework established in this study. The predictive models selected for these logic trees are expected to represent the center, body and range of ground-motion intensity measure estimates. Regarding with the hazard component of risk assessment, the ground motion in...
Planar seismic source characterization models developed for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Istanbul
Gülerce, Zeynep; Guner, Baris; Kaymakcı, Nuretdin (Copernicus GmbH, 2017-12-22)
This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC) model to be used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Istanbul. It defines planar rupture systems for the four main segments of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) that are critical for the PSHA of Istanbul: segments covering the rupture zones of the 1999 Kocaeli and Duzce earthquakes, central Marmara, and Ganos/Saros segments. In each rupture system, the source geometry is defined in terms of fault len...
Citation Formats
N. Yilmaz and M. S. Yücemen, “Sensitivity of seismic hazard results to alternative seismic source and magnitude-recurrence models: a case study for Jordan,” GEODINAMICA ACTA, pp. 189–202, 2015, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: