Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near- and far-field seismic sources

Download

index.pdf

Date

2009-11-24

Author

Gonzalez, F. I.
Geist, E. L.
Jaffe, B.
Kanoğlu, Utku
Mofjeld, H.
Synolakis, C. E.
Titov, V. V.
Arcas, D.
Bellomo, D.
Carlton, D.
Horning, T.
Johnson, J.
Newman, J.
Parsons, T.
Peters, R.
Peterson, C.
Priest, G.
Venturato, A.
Weber, J.
Wong, F.
Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

250
views

199
downloads

The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amplitudes with 1% and 0.2% annual probability of exceedance. The 100-year tsunami is generated most frequently by far-field sources in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes that do not exceed 4 m, with an inland extent of less than 500 m. In contrast, the 500-year tsunami is dominated by local sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes in excess of 10 m and an inland extent of more than 1 km. The primary sources of uncertainty in these results include those associated with interevent time estimates, modeling of background sea level, and accounting for temporal changes in bathymetry and topography. Nonetheless, PTHA represents an important contribution to tsunami hazard assessment techniques; viewed in the broader context of risk analysis, PTHA provides a method for quantifying estimates of the likelihood and severity of the tsunami hazard, which can then be combined with vulnerability and exposure to yield estimates of tsunami risk.

Subject Keywords

Earthquakes, Tides, Evolution, Waves

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/38810

Journal

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jc005132

Collections

Department of Aerospace Engineering, Article

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for earthquake induced landslides Balal, Onur; Gülerce, Zeynep; Department of Civil Engineering (2013) Earthquake-induced slope instability is one of the major sources of earthquake hazards in near fault regions. Simplified tools, such as Newmark’s Sliding Block (NSB) Analysis are widely used to represent the stability of a slope under earthquake shaking. The outcome of this analogy is the slope displacement where larger displacement values indicate higher seismic slope instability risk. Recent studies in the literature propose empirical models between the slope displacement and single or multiple ground mot...
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for sliding displacement of slopes: an application in Turkey Gülerce, Zeynep (2017-07-01) Earthquake-induced slope instability is one of the major sources of earthquake hazards in near fault regions. Simplified tools such as Newmark's sliding block (NSB) analysis are widely used to estimate the sliding displacement of slopes during earthquake shaking. Additionally, empirical models for predicting NSB displacement using single or multiple ground motion intensity measures based on global (e.g. NGA-W1 database, Chiou et al. 2008) or regional datasets are available. The objective of this study is to...
Seismic Intensity Maps for the Eastern Part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (Turkey) Based on Recorded and Simulated Ground-Motion Data Askan, Aysegul; Karim Zadeh Naghshineh, Shaghayegh; Bilal, Mustafa (2017-01-01) Seismic intensity maps are employed globally in the aftermaths of earthquakes for rapid response purposes. These maps involve correlations between intensity and peak ground-motion values. In this study, we focus on eastern sections of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ). The eastern segments of the NAFZ are less investigated and have sparse seismic networks compared with western ones. In particular, we study Erzincan, which is a small city in eastern Turkey, located in the conjunction of three active faul...
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for east anatolian fault zone using planar source models Menekşe, Akın; Gülerce, Zeynep; Department of Civil Engineering (2015) The objective of this study is to perform probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) using planar seismic source characterization models for East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) and to update the design ground motions to be used in the region. Development of planar seismic source models requires the definition of source geometry in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane angles and segmentation points for each segment and associating the observed seismicity with defined fault systems. This complicat...
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Eastern Marmara and evaluation of Turkish Earthquake Code requirements Ocak, Recai Soner; Gülerce, Zeynep; Department of Civil Engineering (2011) The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard in the Eastern Marmara Region using improved seismic source models and enhanced ground motion prediction models by probabilistic approach. Geometry of the fault zones (length, width, dip angle, segmentation points etc.) is determined by the help of available fault maps and traced source lines on the satellite images. State of the art rupture model proposed by USGS Working Group in 2002 is applied to the source system. Composite reoccurren...

Citation Formats

F. I. Gonzalez et al., “Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near- and far-field seismic sources,” JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS, pp. 0–0, 2009, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/38810.