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Development of integrated earthquake simulation system for Istanbul

Sahin, Abdurrahman
Şişman, Rafet
Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül
Hori, Muneo
Recent advances in computing have brought a new and challenging way to tackle the earthquake hazard and disaster problems: integration of the seismic actions in the form of numerical models. For this purpose, integrated earthquake simulation (IES) has been developed in Japan, and now a new version is being developed in Turkey which targets Istanbul. This version of IES is being built in MATLAB and includes site response analysis and structural analysis of existing buildings with data obtained via GIS databases. In this study, we present an initial application in Zeytinburnu district of Istanbul where the results are expressed in the form of spatial distributions of ground motion and building responses. At the end of the analysis, it is seen that most of the buildings make small displacements and the displacement values are directly proportional to the total height of the structures. Since the obtained ground motion distribution and peak values are not very high, structural damage has not been observed under the current simulation. The effect of bedrock depth and soil parameters on strong ground motion distribution has been observed. The most effective ground motion locations in the selected area have been determined, and the critical buildings that have maximum displacement during the earthquake motion are detected. Currently, the IES on MATLAB does not include the source to bedrock wave propagation mechanism and the resulting ground motions at each grid point. In future studies, alternative models for this purpose along with input model parameters for Istanbul will be applied. Once the source-to-structure integrated model is complete, past earthquakes as well as potential scenario events in Istanbul will be modeled in the final form of IES on MATLAB. Results will be valuable for a variety of purposes ranging from disaster mitigation to emergency management. In future part of this study, site vibration tests will also be made for buildings that do not comply with seismic design codes and constitute the largest portion of the seismic risk. New models will be developed for these buildings and adopted into the IES system.