Show/Hide Menu
Hide/Show Apps
anonymousUser
Logout
Türkçe
Türkçe
Search
Search
Login
Login
OpenMETU
OpenMETU
About
About
Açık Bilim Politikası
Açık Bilim Politikası
Frequently Asked Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
Browse
Browse
By Issue Date
By Issue Date
Authors
Authors
Titles
Titles
Subjects
Subjects
Communities & Collections
Communities & Collections
Information theoric framework for the earthquake recurrence models: Methodica Firma per Terra Non-Firma
Download
index.pdf
Date
2006-07-13
Author
Esmer, Ozcan
Metadata
Show full item record
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License
.
Item Usage Stats
14
views
11
downloads
This paper first evaluates the earthquake prediction method (1999) used by US Geological Survey as the lead example and reviews also the recent models. Secondly, points out the ongoing debate on the predictability of earthquake recurrences and lists the main claims of both sides. The traditional methods and the "frequentist" approach used in determining the earthquake probabilities cannot end the complaints that the earthquakes are unpredictable. It is argued that the prevailing "crisis" in seismic research corresponds to the Pre-Maxent Age of the current situation. Theperiodof Kuhnian "Crisis" should give rise to anew paradigm based on the Information-Theoric framework including the inverse problem, Maxent and Bayesian methods. Paper aims to show that the information-theoric methods shall provide the required "Methodica Firma" for the earthquake prediction models.
Subject Keywords
Earthquake prediction
,
Earthquake probabilities
,
Earthquake models
,
Information-theoric methods
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/64090
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1063/1.2423319
Collections
Department of City and Regional Planning, Conference / Seminar