Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme flow indices across Europe

Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa
Sunyer, Maria A.
Lawrence, Deborah
Madsen, Henrik
Willems, Patrick
Buerger, Gerd
Kriauciuniene, Jurate
Loukas, Athanasios
Martinkova, Marta
Osuch, Marzena
Vasiliades, Lampros
Von Christierson, Birgitte
Vormoor, Klaus
Yücel, İsmail
The effect of methods of statistical downscaling of daily precipitation on changes in extreme flow indices under a plausible future climate change scenario was investigated in 11 catchments selected from 9 countries in different parts of Europe. The catchments vary from 67 to 6171 km(2) in size and cover different climate zones. 15 regional climate model outputs and 8 different statistical downscaling methods, which are broadly categorized as change factor and bias correction based methods, were used for the comparative analyses. Different hydrological models were implemented in different catchments to simulate daily runoff. A set of flood indices were derived from daily flows and their changes have been evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. Most of the implemented downscaling methods project an increase in the extreme flow indices in most of the catchments. The catchments where the extremes are expected to increase have a rainfall dominated flood regime. In these catchments, the downscaling methods also project an increase in the extreme precipitation in the seasons when the extreme flows occur. In catchments where the flooding is mainly caused by spring/summer snowmelt, the downscaling methods project a decrease in the extreme flows in three of the four catchments considered. A major portion of the variability in the projected changes in the extreme flow indices is attributable to the variability of the climate model ensemble, although the statistical downscaling methods contribute 35-60% of the total variance.


Climate change effects on extreme flows of water supply area in Istanbul: utility of regional climate models and downscaling method
Kara, Fatih; Yücel, İsmail (2015-09-01)
This study investigates the climate change impact on the changes of mean and extreme flows under current and future climate conditions in the Omerli Basin of Istanbul, Turkey. The 15 regional climate model output from the EU-ENSEMBLES project and a downscaling method based on local implications from geophysical variables were used for the comparative analyses. Automated calibration algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdel-ning (HBV) model for the study catchment ...
Intercomparison of the expected change in the temperature and the precipitation retrieved from CMIP6 and CMIP5 climate projections: A Mediterranean hot spot case, Turkey
Bağçacı, Soner Çağatay; Yücel, İsmail; Düzenli, Eren; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul (2021-07-01)
The performances of a large number of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) belonging to the latest release the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) in comparison with its predecessor CMIP5 are evaluated for monthly precipitation and temperature over Turkey (i.e. climate change hotspot). The ensemble of best top four models from both CMIP simulations is also used to investigate the future climate change under medium and high emissions for short, medium, and long terms. Results show CMIP6 product...
Impact of Climate Change in the Southern Mediterranean of Turkey: A method to assess Oymapinar reservoir’s inflow projections
Mesta Yoleri, Buket; Kentel Erdoğan, Elçin; Yücel, İsmail; Department of Earth System Science (2022-6)
Assessment of trends in climatological parameters observed in the last decades and the climate change projections through modeling studies indicated a high potential of increasing temperatures, decreasing precipitation, and runoff for Southern Europe and the Mediterranean basin. Within the scope of this study, climate change analysis for Antalya and its surrounding basins is conducted and the effects of climate change on streamflow in Oymapınar Basin and inflow of Oymapınar HEPP that is used for energy prod...
Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme precipitation in Europe
Sunyer, M. A.; Hundecha, Y.; Lawrence, D.; Madsen, H.; Wıllems, P.; Martınkova, M.; Vormoor, K.; Buerger, G.; Hanel, M.; Krıaucıunıene, J.; Loukas, A.; Osuch, M.; Yücel, İsmail (2015-01-01)
Information on extreme precipitation for future climate is needed to assess the changes in the frequency and intensity of flooding. The primary source of information in climate change impact studies is climate model projections. However, due to the coarse resolution and biases of these models, they cannot be directly used in hydrological models. Hence, statistical downscaling is necessary to address climate change impacts at the catchment scale.
Assessment of changes in climate indices of the mediterranean climate region of Turkey
Çetinkaya , İzem; Yücel, İsmail; Department of Civil Engineering (2020-10-28)
As a consequence of climate change, frequency and intensity changes in extreme weather events have occurred. One of the most vulnerable regions of the world that is affected by the climate change is the Mediterranean region. Turkey as a Mediterranean country has a great importance to investigate the changes in climate behavior. 57 stations from Mediterranean climate region of Turkey have been selected as the study area for this thesis. This study aims to assess the climate indices that carry the valua...
Citation Formats
Y. Hundecha et al., “Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme flow indices across Europe,” JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, pp. 1273–1286, 2016, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: