Preliminary estimation of the tsunami hazards associated with the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean

Heidarzadeh, Mohammad
Pirooz, Moharram D.
Zaker, Nasser H.
Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet
We present a preliminary estimation of tsunami hazard associated with the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) at the northwestern Indian Ocean. Makran is one of the two main tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean, which has produced some tsunamis in the past. Northwestern Indian Ocean remains one of the least studied regions in the world in terms of tsunami hazard assessment. Hence, a scenario-based method is employed to provide an estimation of tsunami hazard in this region for the first time. The numerical modeling of tsunami is verified using historical observations of the 1945 Makran tsunami. Then, a number of tsunamis each resulting from a 1945-type earthquake (M (w) 8.1) and spaced evenly along the MSZ are simulated. The results indicate that by moving a 1945-type earthquake along the MSZ, the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan will experience the largest waves with heights of between 5 and 7 m, depending on the location of the source. The tsunami will reach a height of about 5 m and 2 m in northern coast of Oman and eastern coast of the United Arab Emirates, respectively.


Historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan and results of numerical modeling
Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Pirooz, Moharram D.; Zaker, Nasser H.; Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet; Mokhtari, Mohammad; Esmaeily, Asad (2008-06-01)
Tsunami hazard in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, was studied by numerical modeling of historical tsunami in this region. Although the MSZ triggered the second deadliest tsunami in the Indian Ocean, among those known, the tsunami hazard in this region has yet to be analyzed in detail. This paper reports the results of a risk analysis using five scenario events based on the historic records, and identifies a seismic gap area in western Makran off the southern c...
Possible worst-case tsunami scenarios around the Marmara Sea from combined earthquake and landslide sources
Latcharote, Panon; Suppasri, Anawat; Imamura, Fumihiko; Aytore, Betul; Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet (2016-12-01)
This study evaluates tsunami hazards in the Marmara Sea from possible worst-case tsunami scenarios that are from submarine earthquakes and landslides. In terms of fault-generated tsunamis, seismic ruptures can propagate along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), which has produced historical tsunamis in the Marmara Sea. Based on the past studies, which consider fault-generated tsunamis and landslide-generated tsunamis individually, future scenarios are expected to generate tsunamis, and submarine landslides cou...
Comparison of tsunami risk assessment based on seismic and landslide generated tsunamis for the Marmara Coast of Istanbul
Tüfekçi Enginar, Duygu; Süzen, Mehmet Lütfi; Kolat, Çağıl; Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet (2019-04-07)
A high resolution tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment have been performed for the Marmara coast of the megacity of Istanbul by using the MeTHuVA (METU Metropolitan Tsunami Human Vulnerability Assessment) Method (Tufekci et al., 2018) considering seismic and non-seismic (submarine landslide) tsunami sources in the sea of Marmara. The 28 September 2018, Mw7.5 strike-slip Sulawesi, Indonesia earthquake triggered an unexpected tsunami and caused damage and loss of lives in Palu Bay. The observed tsunami h...
Evaluation of tsunami scenarios for western Peloponnese, Greece
Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet; Dilmen, D. I.; Aytore, B.; Ayca, A.; Insel, I.; Zaytsev, A. (2014-06-01)
Tsunami hazard assessment of the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea is the current interest of the countries having, a coastline in this region. Considering today's increasing population on the coasts and historical tsunamis, it is essential to estimate the probable tsunami risk, which might occur, to be able to mitigate the risk before the actual tsunami event happens. For this purpose, European Union funded project., SEAHELLARC is formed to develop a methodology and tools for seismic and tsunami safety...
Numerical assessment of tsunami attack on a rubble mound breakwater using OpenFOAM (R)
GÜLER, HASAN GÖKHAN; Baykal, Cüneyt; Arikawa, Taro; Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet (2018-03-01)
A numerical assessment study of tsunami attack on the rubble mound breakwater of Haydarpasa Port, located at the southern entrance of the Istanbul Bosphorus Strait in the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, is carried out in this study using a Volume-Averaged Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes solver, IHFOAM, developed in OpenFOAM (R) environment. The numerical model is calibrated with and validated against the data from solitary wave and tsunami overflow experiments representing tsunami attack. Furthermore, attack of a p...
Citation Formats
M. Heidarzadeh, M. D. Pirooz, N. H. Zaker, and A. C. Yalçıner, “Preliminary estimation of the tsunami hazards associated with the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean,” NATURAL HAZARDS, pp. 229–243, 2009, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: