Comparison of tsunami risk assessment based on seismic and landslide generated tsunamis for the Marmara Coast of Istanbul

A high resolution tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment have been performed for the Marmara coast of the megacity of Istanbul by using the MeTHuVA (METU Metropolitan Tsunami Human Vulnerability Assessment) Method (Tufekci et al., 2018) considering seismic and non-seismic (submarine landslide) tsunami sources in the sea of Marmara. The 28 September 2018, Mw7.5 strike-slip Sulawesi, Indonesia earthquake triggered an unexpected tsunami and caused damage and loss of lives in Palu Bay. The observed tsunami heights are higher than the estimations from seismic sources and the generation mechanisms of this tsunami has not been well understood yet. Therefore, possible coastal sector collapses and/or subaerial/submarine landslides should also be considered as sources of this event. On the other hand, Palu event reminded 17 August 1999, Mw7.4 strike-slip Izmit, Turkey earthquake and associated tsunami event in the eastern end of Marmara Sea Izmit Bay where coastal collapses generated tsunami. These both events have similarities on the strike-slip type of the faulting mechanisms, and the tsunamis generated by submarine landslides that are probably triggered by earthquakes. These two similar events reveal the importance of landslide generated tsunamis and their destructive impact on coastal areas. North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is a dextral strike-slip fault that located along northern Anatolia and several earthquakes along NAF have shown its westward migration since 1939. Considering the earthquake in 1912 on Ganos segment, western part of NAF, a seismic gap in Marmara Sea can be recognized. Even the faulting system shows strike-slip motion, a possible future rupture on this seismic gap may trigger a submarine landslide(s). The impacts of above mentioned events, point out the strong possibility of tsunami generation by the landslides triggered by strike-slip faults which are the main character of the faults in the region. Therefore, landslides should be one of the main components in tsunami vulnerability and risk assessments on the coasts of Marmara Sea, especially in the megacity Istanbul. In this study, three conditions are evaluated, seismic and landslide triggered tsunamis separately and the condition of these two occurred simultaneously. According to these conditions, tsunamis are simulated, their hazard level and vulnerability analysis are performed and tsunami risk maps are plotted. The outputs are compared in the direction of better assessment of vulnerability and risk. The results are presented and discussed to help increasing preparedness of the megacity ˙Istanbul against possible tsunamis in the Marmara Sea. Acknowledgement: MSc. Bora Yalciner and Assoc. Prof. Dr. Andrey Zaytsev are acknowledged for their contributions in developing tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE used in this study. We also thank Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality for providing high quality data and close cooperation
EGU General Assembly 2019, (07 - 12 Nisan 2019)


Possible worst-case tsunami scenarios around the Marmara Sea from combined earthquake and landslide sources
Latcharote, Panon; Suppasri, Anawat; Imamura, Fumihiko; Aytore, Betul; Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet (2016-12-01)
This study evaluates tsunami hazards in the Marmara Sea from possible worst-case tsunami scenarios that are from submarine earthquakes and landslides. In terms of fault-generated tsunamis, seismic ruptures can propagate along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), which has produced historical tsunamis in the Marmara Sea. Based on the past studies, which consider fault-generated tsunamis and landslide-generated tsunamis individually, future scenarios are expected to generate tsunamis, and submarine landslides cou...
Preliminary estimation of the tsunami hazards associated with the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean
Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Pirooz, Moharram D.; Zaker, Nasser H.; Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet (2009-02-01)
We present a preliminary estimation of tsunami hazard associated with the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) at the northwestern Indian Ocean. Makran is one of the two main tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean, which has produced some tsunamis in the past. Northwestern Indian Ocean remains one of the least studied regions in the world in terms of tsunami hazard assessment. Hence, a scenario-based method is employed to provide an estimation of tsunami hazard in this region for the first time. The numerical model...
Tsunami risk and strategies for the European region (TRANSFER)
Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet(2009-10-30)
The project main goal is to contribute to our understanding of tsunami processes in the Euro-Mediterranean region, to the tsunami hazard and risk assessment and to identifying the best strategies for reduction of tsunami risk. Focus will be posed on the gaps and needs for the implementation of an efficient tsunami early warning system (TEWS) in the Euro-Mediterranean area, which is a high-priority task in consideration that no tsunami early warning system is today in place in the Euro-Mediterranean countrie...
Comparison of Human Response Against Earthquake and Tsunami
Arıkawa, Taro; Güler, Hasan Gökhan; Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet (2017-12-01)
The evacuation response against the earthquake and tsunamis is very important for the reduction of human damages against tsunami. But it is very difficult to predict the human behavior after shaking of the earthquake. The purpose of this research is to clarify the difference of the human response after the earthquake shock in the difference countries and to consider the relation between the response and the safety feeling, knowledge and education. For the objective of this paper, the questionnaire survey wa...
Potential tsunami hazard along the southern Turkish coast
Aydin, Baran; Sharghivand, Naeimeh; Bayazitoglu, Ozge (Elsevier BV, 2020-06-01)
The aim of this study is to determine the tsunami potential of the southern Turkish coast through hypothetical earthquake scenarios developed for several critical coastal sites in the region. A well-known tsunami numerical model (MOST) is utilized to calculate the run-up and inundation of the subsequent tsunami waves. The coastal regions selected to realize the aim of the study are Akkuyu and Yesilovacik from Mersin and Yumurtalik from Adana, which are chosen for their industrial and environmental importanc...
Citation Formats
D. Tüfekçi Enginar, M. L. Süzen, Ç. Kolat, and A. C. Yalçıner, “Comparison of tsunami risk assessment based on seismic and landslide generated tsunamis for the Marmara Coast of Istanbul,” presented at the EGU General Assembly 2019, (07 - 12 Nisan 2019), Viyana, Avusturya, 2019, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: