Exchange Rate Regimes and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation

Erdem, Fatma Pinar
Özmen, Erdal
This paper empirically investigates the impacts of domestic and external factors along with exchange rate regimes (ERRs) on business cycles in a large panel of advanced and emerging market economies (EME). The results for classical business cycles suggest that EME tend to experience much deeper recessions and relatively steeper expansions during almost the same duration. The probability of expansions significantly increases with ERR flexibility. Our results strongly support floating ERR for both advanced and EME other than the East Asian countries. The impacts of external real and financial shocks and domestic variables are significantly greater under managed regimes as compared to floats. Consistent with an argument that high saving rates enhance the ability of a country to maintain an ERR, managed regimes performs better only in the East Asian countries. Supporting the de-coupling literature, external cycles become insignificant for growth under flexible ERR. Our results strongly suggest that the evolution and determinants of both classical business and growth cycles are not invariant to the prevailing ERR.


Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey: An Empiricial Investigation
Pekbaş, Melek Özgür; Özmen, Adalı; Department of Economics (2004)
This study investigates the degree of exchange rate pass-through to prices in different sectors for Turkish economy using Johansen Cointegration procedure. The study is based on quarterly data from 1994:1 to 2003:4. In this study it is concluded that the long-run exchange rate pass-through to overall wholesale prices for Turkey is very high and nearly complete. High pass-through degrees are also valid for different sub-sectors wholesale prices like private, public, manufacturing industry and energy. Moreove...
Exchange Rate Regimes as Thresholds: The Main Determinants of Capital Inflows in Emerging Market Economies
Özmen, Erdal (2019-06-14)
This study investigates whether the impacts of the main common push (global financial conditions, GFC) and country-specific pull (growth) factors on capital inflows are invariant to the prevailing exchange rate regimes (ERRs) in emerging market economies. Our results suggest that endogenously estimated ERR thresholds do matter especially for the impact of GFC. The impact of GFC is substantially high under more flexible ERRs for all capital inflow types except FDI. FDI inflows are basically determined by the...
Exchange rate pass-through into domestic price indicators: a sectoral analysis of Turkish economy
Özen, Emine Özgü; Akbostancı Özkazanç, Elif; Department of Economics (2011)
The question of exchange rate pass-through into domestic inflation is a widely analyzed issue due to its importance as regards to monetary policy, exchange rate policy and in general macroeconomic policy for open economies. Although most of the literature is focused on the exchange rate pass-through at the aggregate level, there are fewer studies that are done at the sectoral level for the Turkish economy. In this study by using a distribution chain of pricing model developed by McCarthy (2000), pass-throug...
Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in Turkish economy
Alper, Koray; Gaygısız Lajunen, Esma; Department of Economics (2003)
In this study, determinants and the evolution of the exchange rate passthrough to domestic inflation in the Turkish economy is analyzed. The analyses cover the 1987-2003 period. In the analyses, single equation أError Correction Modelsؤ are used to estimate the exchange rate pass-through. Estimation results suggest that alike other emerging countries, the degree of exchange rate passthrough to domestic prices is high and the pass-through is completed in a very short time span. Estimations results also indic...
Financial development and energy consumption in emerging markets: structural shifts in causal linkages
Durusu Çiftçi, Dilek; Soytaş, Uğur; Nazlıoğlu, Şaban (null; 2018-11-03)
This study examines dynamic causal interrelationships among financial development, energy consumption, and economic growth in the emerging markets by focusing on accounting for structural changes in causal linkages. We first employ the Toda-Yamamoto causality framework and later augment it with Fourier approximation to account for structural shifts – including gradual/smooth shifts. The empirical findings show that accounting for gradual structural shifts matter for the causal linkages between financial dev...
Citation Formats
F. P. Erdem and E. Özmen, “Exchange Rate Regimes and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation,” OPEN ECONOMIES REVIEW, pp. 1041–1058, 2015, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: