Predicting actual load demand in distribution systems with high PV penetration

Yıldız, Ufuk
Because of the increasing environmental concerns, governmental incentives and developing photovoltaic (PV) technology, PV systems have become increasingly popular in recent years. Despite the environmental and economic benefits of PV systems, installation of high number of PV systems brings new challenges in power system operation and management. Due to high number of PV systems at low voltage distribution systems and the computational load of communication and data analysis, the amount of power generated by these systems cannot be monitored. Therefore, it creates operational difficulties for the supply and demand balance for power system operators. The load demand estimation methods currently used by the electricity grid operators cannot provide enough performance for systems with high number of PV systems. The main reason for this is that although the demand for load depends on social and economic conditions, solar energy production varies depending on geographical and climatic conditions. In order to provide better results, the generation data of each PV system should be obtained. As can be expected, monitoring all PV systems individually will be very costly. This thesis aims to predict actual load demand in distribution systems with high PV penetration by predicting total solar power generation. The proposed method uses a small number of measurements and probabilistic knowledge on cloudiness over a city. Numerical simulations for the methodology are provided based on measurements taken from several points in Ankara, Turkey. Numerical results prove that the accuracy of the proposed methods for the actual load demand prediction is getting better when total solar power generation is predicted by methodology stated in this thesis


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Citation Formats
U. Yıldız, “Predicting actual load demand in distribution systems with high PV penetration,” Thesis (M.S.) -- Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences. Electrical and Electronics Engineering., Middle East Technical University, 2019.