Probabilistic Model for the Assessment of Cyclically Induced Reconsolidation (Volumetric) Settlements

Çetin, Kemal Önder
Wu, Jiaer
Kammerer, Annie M.
Seed, Raymond B.
A maximum likelihood framework for the probabilistic assessment of cyclically induced reconsolidation settlements of saturated cohesionless soil sites is described. For this purpose, over 200 case history sites were carefully studied. After screening for data quality and completeness, the resulting database is composed of 49 high-quality, cyclically induced ground settlement case histories from seven different earthquakes. For these case history sites, settlement predictions by currently available methods of Tokimatsu and Seed (1984), Ishihara and Yoshimine (1992), Shamoto (1998), and Wu and Seed (2004) are presented comparatively, along with the predictions of the proposed probabilistic model. As an integral part of the proposed model, the volumetric strain correlation presented in the companion paper is used. The accuracy of the mean predictions as well as their uncertainty is assessed by both linear regression and maximum likelihood methodologies. The analyses results revealed that (1) the predictions of Shamoto and Tokimatsu and Seed are smaller than the actual settlements and need to be calibrated by a factor of 1.93 and 1.45, respectively; and (2) Ishihara and Yoshimine, and Wu and Seed predictions are higher than the actual settlements and need to be calibrated by a factor of 0.90 and 0.98, respectively. The Wu and Seed procedure produced the most unbiased estimates of mean settlements [i.e., their calibration coefficient (0.98) is the closest to unity], but the uncertainty (scatter) of their predictions remains high as revealed by the second to last smaller R(2) value, or relatively higher standard deviation (sigma(epsilon)) of the model error. In addition to superior model predictions, the main advantage of the proposed methodology is the probabilistic nature of the calibration scheme, which enables incorporation of the model uncertainty into mean settlement predictions. To illustrate the potential use of the proposed model, the probability of cyclically induced reconsolidation settlement of a site after a scenario earthquake to be less than a threshold settlement level is assessed.


Probabilistic Models for Cyclic Straining of Saturated Clean Sands
Çetin, Kemal Önder; Wu, Jiaer; Kammerer, Annie M.; Seed, Raymond B. (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2009-03-01)
A maximum likelihood framework for the probabilistic assessment of postcyclic straining of saturated clean sands is described. Databases consisting of cyclic laboratory test results including maximum shear and postcyclic volumetric strains in conjunction with relative density, number of stress (strain) cycles, and "index" test results were used for the development of probabilistically based postcyclic strain correlations. For this purpose, in addition to the compilation of existing data from literature, a s...
Shear-Wave Velocity-Based Probabilistic and Deterministic Assessment of Seismic Soil Liquefaction Potential
Kayen, R.; Moss, R. E. S.; Thompson, E. M.; Seed, R. B.; Çetin, Kemal Önder; Kiureghian, A. Der; Tanaka, Y.; Tokimatsu, K. (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2013-03-01)
Shear-wave velocity (V-s) offers a means to determine the seismic resistance of soil to liquefaction by a fundamental soil property. This paper presents the results of an 11-year international project to gather new V-s site data and develop probabilistic correlations for seismic soil liquefaction occurrence. Toward that objective, shear-wave velocity test sites were identified, and measurements made for 301 new liquefaction field case histories in China, Japan, Taiwan, Greece, and the United States over a d...
Stability Charts for the Collapse of Residual Soil in Karst
DRUMM, Eric C.; Akturk, Oezguer; Akgün, Haluk; Tutluoğlu, Levend (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2009-07-01)
Collapse of the residual soil over bedrock cavities often occurs during construction in karst terrain, particularly when the thickness of the residuum is reduced during excavation. Even if an estimate of the strength of the residual soil is known, uncertainty with respect to the size/geometry of the subterranean voids makes a detailed analysis difficult, and straightforward methods to check the stability are needed. In this study, numerical analyses were performed to develop a stability chart expressed in t...
Cyclic Large Strain and Induced Pore Pressure Models for Saturated Clean Sands
Çetin, Kemal Önder (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2012-03-01)
Semiempirical probabilistic models are described to assess cyclic large strain and induced excess pore-water pressure responses of fully saturated clean sands. For this purpose, available cyclic simple shear and triaxial tests were compiled and studied. The resulting r(u) versus gamma, and gamma versus N databases are composed of 101 and 84 cyclic test data, respectively. Key parameters of the proposed r(u) and gamma models are defined as critical shear strain, relative density, effective confining stress, ...
CPT-based probabilistic and deterministic assessment of in situ seismic soil liquefaction potential
Moss, R. E. S.; Seed, R. B.; Kayen, R. E.; Stewart, J. P.; Kiureghian, A. Der; Çetin, Kemal Önder (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2006-08-01)
This paper presents a complete methodology for both probabilistic and deterministic assessment of seismic soil liquefaction triggering potential based on the cone penetration test (CPT). A comprehensive worldwide set of CPT-based liquefaction field case histories were compiled and back analyzed, and the data then used to develop probabilistic triggering correlations. Issues investigated in this study include improved normalization of CPT resistance measurements for the influence of effective overburden stre...
Citation Formats
K. Ö. Çetin, J. Wu, A. M. Kammerer, and R. B. Seed, “Probabilistic Model for the Assessment of Cyclically Induced Reconsolidation (Volumetric) Settlements,” JOURNAL OF GEOTECHNICAL AND GEOENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING, pp. 387–398, 2009, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: