Developments in Ground Motion Predictive Models and Accelerometric Data Archiving in the Broader European Region

Akkar, Sinan
Kale, Özkan
This paper summarizes the evolution of major strong-motion databases and ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for shallow active crustal regions (SACRs) in Europe and surrounding regions. It concludes with some case studies to show the sensitivity of hazard results at different seismicity levels and exceedance rates for local (developed from country-specific databases) and global (based on databases of multiple countries) GMPEs of the same region. The case studies are enriched by considering other global GMPEs of SACRs that are recently developed in the USA. The hazard estimates computed from local and global GMPEs from the broader Europe as well as those obtained from global GMPEs developed in the US differ. These differences are generally significant and their variation depends on the annual exceedance rate and seismicity. Current efforts to improve the accelerometric data archives in the broader Europe as well as more refined GMPEs that will be developed from these databases would help the researchers to understand the above mentioned differences in seismic hazard.


Practical tools for ranking and selection of groundmotion prediction equations (GMPEs) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and development of a regional GMPE
Kale, Özkan; Akkar, Sinan; Danciu, Laurentiu; Department of Civil Engineering (2014)
This study starts summarizing the progresses in ground-motion databases and ground-motion models in pan-European region and consequent seismic hazard comparisons conducted for individual local and global predictive models. Then, the study presents the compilation of the Middle East region and Turkish ground-motion databases with principle seismological features to be mainly used in predictive model selection process in these regions. In the following step, using a high standard subset of the Middle East gro...
Unified theory of linear instability of anisotropic surfaces and interfaces under capillary, electrostatic, and elastostatic forces: The regrowth of epitaxial amorphous silicon
Ogurtani, Tarik Omer (American Physical Society (APS), 2006-10-01)
The first-order unified linear instability analysis (LISA) of the governing equation for the evolution of surfaces and interfaces under capillary, electromigration (EM), and elastostatic forces is developed. A formal treatment of the thermomigration (Soret effect) driven by the nonuniform temperature distribution caused by exothermic phase transformation (growth) at the surface and interfacial layers is presented and its apparent influence on the capillary force in connection with the stability is also esta...
Artificial-neural-network prediction of hexagonal lattice parameters for non-stoichiometric apatites
Kockan, Umit; Ozturk, Fahrettin; Evis, Zafer (2014-01-01)
In this study, hexagonal lattice parameters (a and c) and unit-cell volumes of non-stoichiometric apatites of M-10(TO4)(6)X-2 are predicted from their ionic radii with artificial neural networks. A multilayer-perceptron network is used for training. The results indicate that the Bayesian regularization method with four neurons in the hidden layer with a tansig activation function and one neuron in the output layer with a purelin function gives the best results. It is found that the errors for the predicted ...
Intelligent analysis of chaos roughness in regularity of walk for a two legged robot
Kaygisiz, BH; Erkmen, İsmet; Erkmen, Aydan Müşerref (Elsevier BV, 2006-07-01)
We describe in this paper a new approach to the identification of the chaotic boundaries of regular (periodic and quasiperiodic) regions in nonlinear systems, using cell mapping equipped with measures of fractal dimension and rough sets. The proposed fractal-rough set approach considers a state space divided into cells where cell trajectories are determined using cell to cell mapping technique. All image cells in the state space, equipped with their individual fractal dimension are then classified as being ...
Modelling the evolution of demand forecasts in a production-distribution system
Yücer, Cem Tahsin; Meral, Fatma Sedef; Department of Industrial Engineering (2006)
In this thesis, we focus on a forecasting tool, Martingale Model of Forecast Evolution (MMFE), to model the evolution of forecasts in a production-distribution system. Additive form is performed to represent the evolution process. Variance-Covariance (VCV) matrix is defined to express the forecast updates. The selected demand pattern is stationary and it is normally distributed. It follows an Autoregressive Order-1 (AR(1)) model. Two forecasting procedures are selected to compare the MMFE with. These are MA...
Citation Formats
S. Akkar and Ö. Kale, “Developments in Ground Motion Predictive Models and Accelerometric Data Archiving in the Broader European Region,” 2015, vol. 39, p. 293, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: