Practical tools for ranking and selection of groundmotion prediction equations (GMPEs) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and development of a regional GMPE

Download

index.pdf

Date

2014

Author

Kale, Özkan

Metadata

Show full item record

Item Usage Stats

206
views

212
downloads

This study starts summarizing the progresses in ground-motion databases and ground-motion models in pan-European region and consequent seismic hazard comparisons conducted for individual local and global predictive models. Then, the study presents the compilation of the Middle East region and Turkish ground-motion databases with principle seismological features to be mainly used in predictive model selection process in these regions. In the following step, using a high standard subset of the Middle East ground-motion database, a ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) is developed for Turkey and Iran to investigate the possible regional effects on ground-motion amplitudes in shallow active crustal earthquakes. Next part introduces a method for ranking and selection of GMPEs based on Euclidean distance concept. The proposed method is capable of determining the proper set of predictive models for regional or site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) under a given set of observed ground-motion data. To this end, an alternative method for establishing ground-motion logic-tree framework for PSHA is represented in the following part of the study. The proposed method evaluates the effects of the predictive models and corresponding branch weights selected for logic-tree framework to properly capture the epistemic uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis. As a final point, a ground-motion logic-tree framework combining the functionalities of data-driven GMPE testing methods and logic-tree based sensitivity approach are proposed for shallow active crustal regions in EMME (Earthquake Model of the Middle East Region) project.

Subject Keywords

Earthquake hazard analysis., Earthquake engineering.

URI

http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12618050/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/23916

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Information theoric framework for the earthquake recurrence models: Methodica Firma per Terra Non-Firma Esmer, Ozcan (2006-07-13) This paper first evaluates the earthquake prediction method (1999) used by US Geological Survey as the lead example and reviews also the recent models. Secondly, points out the ongoing debate on the predictability of earthquake recurrences and lists the main claims of both sides. The traditional methods and the "frequentist" approach used in determining the earthquake probabilities cannot end the complaints that the earthquakes are unpredictable. It is argued that the prevailing "crisis" in seismic research...
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Eastern Marmara and evaluation of Turkish Earthquake Code requirements Ocak, Recai Soner; Gülerce, Zeynep; Department of Civil Engineering (2011) The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard in the Eastern Marmara Region using improved seismic source models and enhanced ground motion prediction models by probabilistic approach. Geometry of the fault zones (length, width, dip angle, segmentation points etc.) is determined by the help of available fault maps and traced source lines on the satellite images. State of the art rupture model proposed by USGS Working Group in 2002 is applied to the source system. Composite reoccurren...
Implicit monolithic parallel solution algorithm for seismic analysis of dam-reservoir systems Özmen, Semih; Kurç, Özgür; Department of Civil Engineering (2016) This research mainly focuses on developing a computationally scalable and efficient solution algorithm that can handle linear dynamic analysis of dam-reservoir interaction problem. Lagrangian fluid finite elements are utilized and compressibility and viscosity of the fluid are taken into consideration during the reservoir modeling. In order to provide computational scalability and efficiency, domain decomposition methods implemented with parallel computing approaches such as Finite Element Tearing and Inter...
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for east anatolian fault zone using planar source models Menekşe, Akın; Gülerce, Zeynep; Department of Civil Engineering (2015) The objective of this study is to perform probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) using planar seismic source characterization models for East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) and to update the design ground motions to be used in the region. Development of planar seismic source models requires the definition of source geometry in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane angles and segmentation points for each segment and associating the observed seismicity with defined fault systems. This complicat...
Direction finding accuracy of sequential lobing under target amplitude fluctuations Candan, Çağatay (Institution of Engineering and Technology (IET), 2015-01-01) Using recently developed statistical target fluctuation models, the accuracy of sequential lobing is analytically studied. The study shows that the sequential lobing method suffers from a significant performance loss, in comparison with the monopulse method, for the Rayleigh fluctuation model. For other fluctuation models, the performance loss gradually decreases as the amplitude spread associated with the fluctuation gets smaller. The present study aims to analytically quantify the mentioned accuracy loss ...

Citation Formats

Ö. Kale, “Practical tools for ranking and selection of groundmotion prediction equations (GMPEs) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and development of a regional GMPE,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2014.