Practical tools for ranking and selection of groundmotion prediction equations (GMPEs) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and development of a regional GMPE

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2014
Kale, Özkan
This study starts summarizing the progresses in ground-motion databases and ground-motion models in pan-European region and consequent seismic hazard comparisons conducted for individual local and global predictive models. Then, the study presents the compilation of the Middle East region and Turkish ground-motion databases with principle seismological features to be mainly used in predictive model selection process in these regions. In the following step, using a high standard subset of the Middle East ground-motion database, a ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) is developed for Turkey and Iran to investigate the possible regional effects on ground-motion amplitudes in shallow active crustal earthquakes. Next part introduces a method for ranking and selection of GMPEs based on Euclidean distance concept. The proposed method is capable of determining the proper set of predictive models for regional or site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) under a given set of observed ground-motion data. To this end, an alternative method for establishing ground-motion logic-tree framework for PSHA is represented in the following part of the study. The proposed method evaluates the effects of the predictive models and corresponding branch weights selected for logic-tree framework to properly capture the epistemic uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis. As a final point, a ground-motion logic-tree framework combining the functionalities of data-driven GMPE testing methods and logic-tree based sensitivity approach are proposed for shallow active crustal regions in EMME (Earthquake Model of the Middle East Region) project.

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Citation Formats
Ö. Kale, “Practical tools for ranking and selection of groundmotion prediction equations (GMPEs) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and development of a regional GMPE,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2014.