Reliability-based risk assessment in coastal projects: Case study in Turkey

Balas, CE
Ergin, A
The risk of damage during the construction phase of a coastal structure was investigated by utilizing Level II and III reliability methods. Structural risks were incorporated in the planning phase of coastal projects by utilizing a practical risk management approach implemented in the Mezitli (Icel) Yacht Harbor project in Turkey. By specifying the exceedance probability of damage level at the design stage, the delay times of construction activities due to damage were obtained at the project-planning phase, which enabled the estimation of the project completion time. It is found that structural risk of damage in the construction period can be an important factor to be considered in the reliability-based project management. because coastal projects involve considerable damage risk during the construction phase. The application of Monte Carlo simulations (Level III), which is generally performed within a few minutes of CPU time in fast computers, has the advantage of robustness when compared with the second-order methods such as the Hasofer-Lind method, provided that the probability distribution of random variables and their correlation are described with an acceptable accuracy, which should be obtained from data accumulated over a sufficient number of years. In this study, by specifying the exceedance probability of "no damage level" at the design stage, the probability of construction completion times were estimated at the planning phase for the case study of Mezitli Yacht Harbor, where the probability distributions of random variables were obtained from the governmental archives.


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Multi-story reinforced concrete tunnel form buildings are one of the common structural types in regions prone to high seismic risk due to the buildings inherent earthquake resistance and ease of construction. Despite their good performance during earthquakes in 1999 in Turkey, and abundance of such structures scattered worldwide, current seismic codes and design provisions provide insufficient guidelines for their seismic design. As a compensatory measure, a series of modal and nonlinear static analyses are...
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Performance of infill walls in reinforced concrete (RC) frames is generally questionable under the combined action of in-plane and out-of-plane seismic demands. Despite the vast number of tests investigating the behavior of brick masonry infill walls in RC frames, past research is limited for infill walls made of Autoclaved Aerated Concrete (AAC) blocks. In the first part of the study, six single-bay single-story half-scaled RC frames were tested under the action of in-plane cyclic displacement excursions a...
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In this study, structural vulnerability of reinforced concrete frame structures by considering the countryspecific characteristics is investigated to manage the earthquake risk and to develop strategies for disaster mitigation. Lowrise and midrise reinforced concrete structures, which constitute approximately 75% of the total building stock in Turkey, are focused in this fragilitybased assessment. The seismic design of 3, 5, 7 and 9story reinforced concrete frame structures are carried out according to the ...
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Citation Formats
C. Balas and A. Ergin, “Reliability-based risk assessment in coastal projects: Case study in Turkey,” JOURNAL OF WATERWAY PORT COASTAL AND OCEAN ENGINEERING-ASCE, pp. 52–61, 2002, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: