The tale of two epİsodes: estİmatİng tİme-varyİng potentİal output and naİru usİng a multİvarİate fİlter for turkey

Gökçü, Mert
In the aftermath of the 2001 crisis, a steady growth pattern was sustained, inflation rates were reduced to single-digit levels and a remarkable improvement in interest rates was realized in Turkey. Despite these positive developments, the Turkish economy has experienced two cyclical downturns in this period. The first one was due to the global financial crisis, which spans the period 2008-Q2 and 2009-Q1, while the second one took place between 2018-Q3 and 2018-Q4 when strong and abruptly depreciation in Turkish Lira and high country’s risk premium existed. Although the depth and duration of the latter downturn were shorter than the former, both periods had major repercussions on the labor market. In this thesis, we examine the business cycle conditions and estimate the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) in both episodes by using univariate and multivariate detrending methods. Although univariate filters give confusing results, multivariate filter results are fairly reasonable. Though estimate of the slack in the output is smaller in the recent period, the unemployment rate and NAIRU increase sharply and reach the highest levels historically in both periods. Due to weaker foreign demand and composition of industrial sector products, slack in capacity utilization rate is higher in the global financial crisis. As a result, the labor market has been the most affected by these turmoil negatively


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Citation Formats
M. Gökçü, “The tale of two epİsodes: estİmatİng tİme-varyİng potentİal output and naİru usİng a multİvarİate fİlter for turkey,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2020.