Seeing the risk picture: Visualization of project risk information

Date

2020-01-01

Author

Dikmen Toker, İrem

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Risk assessment is carried out to understand uncertainties and estimate how they may affect a project. Although there are various studies on alternative methods to quantify risk in projects, limited research exists about how the results are utilized to make sense of project risk by the decision-makers. Probabilistic methods such as Monte Carlo Simulation involve an additional complication as probability is an abstract concept and hard to interpret. We argue that blurred risk pictures as well as lack of familiarity of the users with the concept of probability may lead to misleading interpretations during risk assessments. The aim of this paper is to present the underlying theoretical ideas behind a planned empirical research project with the goal to explore how results of probabilistic risk assessment can be represented in a way that help decision-makers to understand risk in a project and develop visuals that can be used by the decision-makers to see the entire risk picture. Within the study we plan to analyze data from a case study on a mega tunnel project carried out in Turkey, hypothesizing that interactive visualizations may help the user to understand the inputs, outputs and assumptions in quantitative risk models, and help risk managers to understand how project outcomes may change with changes in the risk picture. We hope that the outcomes of the empirical research will allow us to develop better visuals for users to understand the potential scenarios in a project, probability, variation and model uncertainty.

Subject Keywords

Intelligent computing, Monte Carlo methods, Project management, Risk perception, Uncertainty analysis

URI

https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85091031598&origin=inward
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/70972

Conference Name

27th EG-ICE International Workshop on Intelligent Computing in Engineering 2020

Collections

Department of Civil Engineering, Conference / Seminar

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Citation Formats

İ. Dikmen Toker, “Seeing the risk picture: Visualization of project risk information,” Online, Almanya, 2020, p. 383, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85091031598&origin=inward.