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Project Cost Benefit and Risk Analysis using Bayesian Networks
Date
2015-07-16
Author
Yet, Barbaros
Fenton, Norman
Neil, Martin
Luedeling, Eike
Shepherd, Keith
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Uncertainty and risks are common elements of all major projects. Yet such uncertainty is rarely effectively calculated when analysing project costs and benefits. This paper presents a Bayesian network (BN) modelling framework to calculate the costs, benefits, and return on investment of a project over a specified time period, allowing for changing circumstances and trade-offs. The framework uses hybrid and dynamic BNs containing both discrete and continuous variables over multiple time stages. The BN calculates costs and benefits based on multiple causal factors including the effects of individual risk factors, budget deficits, and time value discounting. The method is illustrated using a case study of an agricultural development project.
Subject Keywords
Project management
,
Project risk analysis
,
Bayesian networks
URI
http://ceur-ws.org/Vol-1565/bmaw2015_paper1.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/78134
Conference Name
31st Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2015) - Bayesian Applications Workshop (12 - 16 Temmuz 2015)
Collections
Graduate School of Informatics, Conference / Seminar
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Risk and uncertainty are natural elements of projects. A project manager has to manage these elements effectively to improve the chance of project success. Yet, well-known biases and heuristics about decision-making under uncertainty limit a project manager's ability to deal with these elements, especially for complex projects, and decision support tools can be helpful for this task. This paper focuses on building a decision support model for reasoning with uncertainty in project control. We propose a Bayes...
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B. Yet, N. Fenton, M. Neil, E. Luedeling, and K. Shepherd, “Project Cost Benefit and Risk Analysis using Bayesian Networks,” presented at the 31st Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2015) - Bayesian Applications Workshop (12 - 16 Temmuz 2015), Amsterdam, Netherlands, 2015, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: http://ceur-ws.org/Vol-1565/bmaw2015_paper1.pdf.