Project Cost Benefit and Risk Analysis using Bayesian Networks

Date

2015-07-16

Author

Yet, Barbaros
Fenton, Norman
Neil, Martin
Luedeling, Eike
Shepherd, Keith

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Uncertainty and risks are common elements of all major projects. Yet such uncertainty is rarely effectively calculated when analysing project costs and benefits. This paper presents a Bayesian network (BN) modelling framework to calculate the costs, benefits, and return on investment of a project over a specified time period, allowing for changing circumstances and trade-offs. The framework uses hybrid and dynamic BNs containing both discrete and continuous variables over multiple time stages. The BN calculates costs and benefits based on multiple causal factors including the effects of individual risk factors, budget deficits, and time value discounting. The method is illustrated using a case study of an agricultural development project.

Subject Keywords

Project management, Project risk analysis, Bayesian networks

URI

http://ceur-ws.org/Vol-1565/bmaw2015_paper1.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/78134

Conference Name

31st Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2015) - Bayesian Applications Workshop (12 - 16 Temmuz 2015)

Collections

Graduate School of Informatics, Conference / Seminar

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Citation Formats

B. Yet, N. Fenton, M. Neil, E. Luedeling, and K. Shepherd, “Project Cost Benefit and Risk Analysis using Bayesian Networks,” presented at the 31st Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2015) - Bayesian Applications Workshop (12 - 16 Temmuz 2015), Amsterdam, Netherlands, 2015, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: http://ceur-ws.org/Vol-1565/bmaw2015_paper1.pdf.