Project Risk Conceptualization by Metaphors

2019-04-12
We discuss alternative ways risk is characterized by metaphorical thinking in the literature. Although it is acknowledged that risk may have positive and negative consequences, risk is usually considered as an “enemy” that has to be “defeated” or a “disease” to be “treated”. Metaphors such as dice/coin and black swans divert the attention of decision-makers to only one source of uncertainty, aleatory or epistemic, but not both. Integrative thinking is required where risk can be conceptualized as a “picture” that involves all sources of uncertainty as well as project vulnerability and resilience, considering the “knowledge” and “perspective” of the decision-maker behind the “risk picture”.
PM Congress 2019

Suggestions

Project Cost Benefit and Risk Analysis using Bayesian Networks
Yet, Barbaros; Fenton, Norman; Neil, Martin; Luedeling, Eike; Shepherd, Keith (null; 2015-07-16)
Uncertainty and risks are common elements of all major projects. Yet such uncertainty is rarely effectively calculated when analysing project costs and benefits. This paper presents a Bayesian network (BN) modelling framework to calculate the costs, benefits, and return on investment of a project over a specified time period, allowing for changing circumstances and trade-offs. The framework uses hybrid and dynamic BNs containing both discrete and continuous variables over multiple time stages. The BN calcul...
Narratives of Project Risk Management: From Scientific Rationality to the Discursive Nature of Identity Work
Green, Stuart D.; Dikmen Toker, İrem (2022-12-01)
The dominant narrative of project risk management pays homage to scientific rationality while conceptualizing risk as objective fact. Yet doubts remain regarding the extent to which the advocated quantitative techniques are used in practice. An established counternarrative advocates the importance of intuition and subjective judgment. New insights are developed by conceptualizing risk as a narrative construct used for the purposes of identity work. Project-based practitioners are seen to mobilize resources ...
Identifying and managing risk in mega-projects: the case of automotive test center project in Turkey
Ayvazoğlu, Buğra; Akın Ateş, Melek.; Department of Business Administration (2019)
The issue of risk assessment in projects has attracted considerable attention in both practice and the literature. Although the number of studies investigating large-scale engineering projects (construction, rail system projects, power plants, etc.) has been increasing, majority of them focus on private sector. In this thesis, it is specifically focused on a current, mega-project where both governmental and private organizations participate, namely the Automotive Test Center Project carried out in Turkey. T...
Application of a risk visualization framework using semantic risk data to empower risk communication
Ertaymaz, Muzaffer Uğurcan; Atasoy Özcan, Güzide; Department of Civil Engineering (2020)
Risk communication is one of the major factors that effects the success of a project. Conventional risk management focuses on risk checklists and matrices, and considerable amount of risk information is discarded and not communicated. Without communicating the necessary risk information, risk management strategies cannot be applied effectively. The purpose of this study is to develop a systematic and practical risk visualization framework that shall improve the risk communication strategies. The proposed fr...
The Impact of the Level of Fear Experienced During the COVID-19 Epidemic on Risk Aversion and Work Interaction Avoidance Behaviors: An Application on Health Professionals
Yalman, Fuat; Sancar, Tekin (ODTÜ- AYNA Klinik Psikoloji Destek Ünitesi, 2022-2)
The main purpose of this study was to determine the effect of the level of fear experienced during the COVID-19 epidemic on risk aversion and work interaction avoidance behaviors. Healthcare workers have always been the group with the highest risk of contracting virus, as they put their lives at risk in all pandemics to fight epidemics on the front lines. Hospital-based cross-sectional research design was used in the study. The universe of the research consisted of all healthcare professionals of two differ...
Citation Formats
İ. Dikmen Toker and M. T. Birgönül, “Project Risk Conceptualization by Metaphors,” Rotterdam, Hollanda, 2019, p. 762, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/73602.