Numerical Modeling of the 1939 Erzincan Earthquake

2019-06-26
Erzincan İli, Kuzey Anadolu Fay Hattı, Kuzey Doğu Anadolu Fay Hattı ve Ovacık Fayları arasında derin bir basen yapısı içerisinde yer almakta olup, dünyanın sismik aktivite açısından en yoğun bölgelerinden birisidir. Bölgenin sismotektonik ve jeolojik koşulları, 1939 (Ms~7.8) ve 1992 (Mw= 6.6) depremleri dahil olmak üzere bir çok tarihi ve aletsel dönem depremlerine sebep olmuştur. 1939 Erzincan depremi çok yıkıcı bir deprem olmakla birlikte, aletsel dönemden önceye denk geldiği için bu depreme ait kayıt bulunmamaktadır. Diğer yandan, 1992 Erzincan depremi ise seyrek bir ağda kaydedilmiş olsa da, çeşitli açılardan detaylı olarak araştırılmıştır. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı Erzincan bölgesine ait sismik ve jeolojik parametreler kullanarak 1939 depreminin yer hareketi simülasyonlarını gerçekleştirmektir. Çalışmada temel yöntem olarak stokastik sonlu fay yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Dalga yayılım ve saha parametreleri, 1992 Erzincan depremi verileriyle doğrulanırken, kaynak parametreleri ise bölgedeki 1939 Erzincan depremi çalışmalarından derlenmiştir. Bu çalışmanın sonuçları, bölgede seçilen düğüm noktalarında modellenen ivme-zaman kayıtları, maksimum yer ivmesi ve maksimum yer hızı dağılımları ile bölgede hissedilen şiddet haritaları biçiminde ifade edilmektedir. Sayısal modeli doğrulamak amacıyla, simüle edilen yer hareketleri önce ampirik yer hareketi tahmin denklemleriyle karşılaştırmıştır. Daha sonra ise, modellenen şiddet haritası, 1939 Erzincan depremi verileriyle hazırlanmış olan gözlemsel şiddet haritası ile doğrulanmıştır

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Citation Formats
S. Karim Zadeh Naghshineh and A. Askan Gündoğan, “Numerical Modeling of the 1939 Erzincan Earthquake,” presented at the International Disaster Resilience Congress (IDRC2019), (26 - 28 Haziran 2019), Eskişehir, Türkiye, 2019, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: http://www.idrcongress.org/uploads/apers-of-idrc-2019.pdf.