Use of ground motion simulations of a historical earthquake for the assessment of past and future urban risks

Date

2017-12-11

Author

Celik, Aylin
Karim Zadeh Naghshineh, Shaghayegh
Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül

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Erzincan city located in the Eastern part of Turkey at the conjunction of three active faults is one of the most hazardous regions in the world. In addition to several historical events, this city has experienced one of the largest earthquakes during the last century: The 27 December 1939 (Ms=8.0) event. With limited knowledge of the tectonic structure by then, the city center was relocated to the North after the 1939 earthquake by almost 5km, indeed closer to the existing major strike slip fault. This decision coupled with poor construction technologies, led to severe damage during a later event that occurred on 13 March 1992 (Mw=6.6). The 1939 earthquake occurred in the pre-instrumental era in the region with no available local seismograms whereas the 1992 event was only recorded by 3 nearby stations. There are empirical isoseismal maps from both events indicating indirectly the spatial distribution of the damage. In this study, we focus on this region and present a multidisciplinary approach to discuss the different components of uncertainties involved in the assessment and mitigation of seismic risk in urban areas. For this initial attempt, ground motion simulation of the 1939 event is performed to obtain the anticipated ground motions and shaking intensities. Using these quantified results along with the spatial distribution of the observed damage, the relocation decision is assessed and suggestions are provided for future large earthquakes to minimize potential earthquake risks.

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/87171
https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm17/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/213209

Conference Name

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting, 11-15 December 2017

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Department of Civil Engineering, Conference / Seminar

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Use of Ground Motion Simulations of a Historical Earthquake for the Assessment of Past and Future Urban Risks Çelik, Aylin; Karimzadeh, Shaghayegh; Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül (2018-09-02) Erzincan city located in the Eastern part of Turkey at the conjunction of three active faults is one of the most hazardous regions in the world. In addition to several historical events, this city has experienced one of the largest earthquakes during the last century: The 27 December 1939 (Ms=8.0) event. With limited knowledge of the tectonic structure by then, the city center was relocated to the North after the 1939 event by almost 5km, indeed closer to the existing major strike slip fault. This decision ...
Numerical Modeling of the 1939 Erzincan Earthquake Karim Zadeh Naghshineh, Shaghayegh; Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül (null; 2019-06-26) Erzincan İli, Kuzey Anadolu Fay Hattı, Kuzey Doğu Anadolu Fay Hattı ve Ovacık Fayları arasında derin bir basen yapısı içerisinde yer almakta olup, dünyanın sismik aktivite açısından en yoğun bölgelerinden birisidir. Bölgenin sismotektonik ve jeolojik koşulları, 1939 (Ms~7.8) ve 1992 (Mw= 6.6) depremleri dahil olmak üzere bir çok tarihi ve aletsel dönem depremlerine sebep olmuştur. 1939 Erzincan depremi çok yıkıcı bir deprem olmakla birlikte, aletsel dönemden önceye denk geldiği için bu depreme ait kayıt bul...
Modeling of a historical earthquake in Erzincan, Turkey (Ms similar to 7.8, in 1939) using regional seismological information obtained from a recent event Karim Zadeh Naghshineh, Shaghayegh; Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül (2018-06-01) Located within a basin structure, at the conjunction of North East Anatolian, North Anatolian and Ovacik Faults, Erzincan city center (Turkey) is one of the most hazardous regions in the world. Combination of the seismotectonic and geological settings of the region has resulted in series of significant seismic activities including the 1939 (Ms similar to 7.8) as well as the 1992 (Mw = 6.6) earthquakes. The devastative 1939 earthquake occurred in the pre-instrumental era in the region with no available local...
Modeling of the 1939 Erzincan (Ms~7.8) Earthquake: Observations on Anticipated Ground Motions and Damage Distribution (2017-10-11) Located within a pull-apart basin at the conjunction of three active faults (North Anatolian, North East Anatolian and Ovacik Faults), Erzincan city center is one of the most hazardous regions in the world. Combination of the seismotectonic and geological settings of the region has resulted in series of significant seismic activities including the 27 December 1939 (Ms~7.8) and the 13 March 1992 (Mw=6.6) events. The former earthquake was in the preinstrumental era in the region with no available local seismo...
MODELING OF THE 1939 ERZINCAN, TURKEY (MS~7.8) EARTHQUAKE: OBSERVATIONS ON ANTICIPATED GROUND MOTIONS AND FELT INTENSITY DISTRIBUTION Karim Zadeh Naghshineh, Shaghayegh (2018-06-06) Located within a pull-apart basin at the conjunction of three active faults (North Anatolian, North East Anatolian and Ovacik Faults), Erzincan city center is one of the most hazardous regions of the world. Combination of the seismotectonic and geological settings of the region has resulted in series of significant seismic activities including the 27 December 1939 (Ms=8.0) and the 13 March 1992 (Mw=6.6) events. The former earthquake was in the pre-instrumental era in the region with no available local seism...

Citation Formats

A. Celik, S. Karim Zadeh Naghshineh, and A. Askan Gündoğan, “Use of ground motion simulations of a historical earthquake for the assessment of past and future urban risks ,” presented at the American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting, 11-15 December 2017, New Orleans, LA, USA, 2017, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/87171.