Scenario-Based Tsunami Hazard Assessment For Java (Sunda) Trench Using Monte Carlo Simulations

Date

2019-07-01

Author

Yavuz, Cüneyt
Kentel Erdoğan, Elçin

Metadata

Show full item record

Item Usage Stats

137
views

0
downloads

Java (Sunda) trench lying along the eastern and southern coasts of Indonesia is one of the world's most active seismic zone. Java (Sunda) trench experienced devastating earthquakes and tsunamis throughout history. Despite the fact that about 14 years have passed since the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, the seismic activity in this region is still intense. Thus, reliable estimation of the associated hazard of a possible large earthquake that can generate tsunami is vital for designing early warning systems, site selection of future critical infrastructures (CIs) and planning necessary mitigation measures for existing CIs and critical regions (CRs). Therefore, Scenario-based Tsunami Hazard Assessment (STHA) is performed for this region in this study. Historical earthquake data is compiled using ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue for the region. Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method is used to generate random earthquake source parameters (i.e. magnitude, focal depth) along Java (Sunda) trench. The worst-case scenario among MC runs is selected and simulated using NAMI-DANCE tsunami simulation software. Critical Regions (CRs) and Critical Infrastructures (CIs) are identified and spatial distribution of the inundation levels along the eastern and southern coastline of Sumatra and Java Islands, focusing on these CRs and CIs is determined. It is observed that some of the CRs and CIs are vulnerable to potential high-risk tsunamis.

Subject Keywords

Scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment, Monte Carlo, NAMI-DANCE, Critical regions, Critical Infrastructures

URI

https://dergipark.org.tr/sufbd/issue/46848/554639
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/85788

Journal

Şırnak Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi

Collections

Department of Civil Engineering, Article

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Preliminary estimation of the tsunami hazards associated with the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Pirooz, Moharram D.; Zaker, Nasser H.; Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet (2009-02-01) We present a preliminary estimation of tsunami hazard associated with the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) at the northwestern Indian Ocean. Makran is one of the two main tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean, which has produced some tsunamis in the past. Northwestern Indian Ocean remains one of the least studied regions in the world in terms of tsunami hazard assessment. Hence, a scenario-based method is employed to provide an estimation of tsunami hazard in this region for the first time. The numerical model...
Tsunami risk assessment using GIS-based multi criteria decision analysis at Bakirköy, İstanbul Tüfekçi, Duygu; Süzen, Mehmet Lütfi; Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet; Department of Geological Engineering (2016) Northern coast of the Sea of Marmara hosts many of coastal facilities. Bakırköy is one of the most critical coastal districts of İstanbul with the importance of air and marine transportation. There are many other coastal facilities and structures in Bakırköy district such as marinas, small scaled craft harbors, water front roads and business centers that are prone to suffer from the marine disasters. In the history, the Sea of Marmara has experienced numerous earthquakes and associated tsunamis. Therefore, ...
Evaluation of tsunami scenarios for western Peloponnese, Greece Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet; Dilmen, D. I.; Aytore, B.; Ayca, A.; Insel, I.; Zaytsev, A. (2014-06-01) Tsunami hazard assessment of the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea is the current interest of the countries having, a coastline in this region. Considering today's increasing population on the coasts and historical tsunamis, it is essential to estimate the probable tsunami risk, which might occur, to be able to mitigate the risk before the actual tsunami event happens. For this purpose, European Union funded project., SEAHELLARC is formed to develop a methodology and tools for seismic and tsunami safety...
Numerical Modeling of Long Waves from Atypical Sources: Atmospheric Disturbances and Volcanic Origin Doğan Bingöl, Gözde Güney; Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet; Department of Civil Engineering (2022-6-30) Earthquakes are the main cause mechanisms of tsunamis and large tsunamigenic earthquakes, especially in the subduction zones, occur on relatively much shorter timescales, but destructive tsunamis are also produced by volcanic eruptions, which have been threatening the coastal communities throughout history. Furthermore, while earthquake-generated tsunamis have been studied immensely, there is less focus on research related to tsunamis induced by atmospheric disturbances (meteotsunamis). Consequently, this s...
Historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan and results of numerical modeling Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Pirooz, Moharram D.; Zaker, Nasser H.; Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet; Mokhtari, Mohammad; Esmaeily, Asad (2008-06-01) Tsunami hazard in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, was studied by numerical modeling of historical tsunami in this region. Although the MSZ triggered the second deadliest tsunami in the Indian Ocean, among those known, the tsunami hazard in this region has yet to be analyzed in detail. This paper reports the results of a risk analysis using five scenario events based on the historic records, and identifies a seismic gap area in western Makran off the southern c...

Citation Formats

C. Yavuz and E. Kentel Erdoğan, “Scenario-Based Tsunami Hazard Assessment For Java (Sunda) Trench Using Monte Carlo Simulations,” Şırnak Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, pp. 107–122, 2019, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://dergipark.org.tr/sufbd/issue/46848/554639.