The impact of hard data uncertainty in reservoirs modelling

2017-01-01
Fadlelmula, M.m.
Akın, Serhat
Duzgun, H.s.
Show full item record
216
views
0
downloads
Predicting and estimating real world conditions presents one of the major ways in which uncertainty is introduced to reservoir modelling, with errors often occurring due to the scarcity of subsurface geological information. The inherently random nature of physical phenomena is another source of uncertainty. While uncertainty due to physical phenomena cannot be reduced - because it is a state of nature - developing more accurate models and collecting additional data can help decrease estimation uncertainty. These uncertainties affect the output of reservoir models, but to what extent? This study provides a systematic way to investigate the propagation of hard data uncertainty through the estimate of original oil in place (OOIP) and recoverable oil in place (ROIP) for a given reservoir model. The reservoir is modelled using a multiple-point statistics (MPS) methodology. The results show that the projected OOIP and ROIP values are very sensitive to hard data uncertainty. © 2017 European Association of Geoscientists and Engineers EAGE. All rights reserved.
Carbonates, Productivity
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85048869041&origin=inward
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/86281
2nd EAGE Workshop on Well Injectivity and Productivity in CarbonatesVolume 2017-December, 2017
Department of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering, Conference / Seminar

Suggestions

Temporal and spatial changes of primary productivity the sea of Marmara obtained by remote sensing
İkis, Didem; Bilgin, Cemal Can; Department of Biology (2007)
Temporal and spatial variations in the Sea of Marmara based on monthly averages of chlorophyll a, which is the major indicator of phytoplankton biomass and primary production, recorded by SeaWiFS and MODIS-Aqua sensors at nearly 100 stations have been analyzed for the period of 1997-2007. Majority of phytoplankton blooms occur during the winter and spring seasons, followed by a smaller secondary bloom during the fall season. The majority of high magnitude blooms occur at the Eastern part of the Sea which ma...
Probabilistic modeling of plane failure in rock slopes
DUZGUN, HSB; Yücemen, Mehmet Semih; Karpuz, Celal (2003-07-09)
The basic aim of this study is to formulate a probabilistic method by which sources of uncertainties can be taken into account and systematically analyzed in dealing with the rock slope stability problem. For this purpose, the advanced first-order second-moment (AFOSM) method and the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) procedure are used to model the plane failure problem in rock slopes. The modeling of plane failure by the AFOSM and the MCS methods requires the understanding of the basic mechanism of plane failur...
The Effects of Implementing Different Ground-motionLogic-tree Frameworks on Seismic Risk Assessment
Ay, Bekir Özer (null; 2018-06-21)
This study investigates the link between probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and corresponding loss estimations by using different ground-motion logic-tree frameworks from reliable large scale seismic hazard projects as well as the logic-tree framework established in this study. The predictive models selected for these logic trees are expected to represent the center, body and range of ground-motion intensity measure estimates. Regarding with the hazard component of risk assessment, the ground motion in...
Evaluating a mesoscale atmosphere model and a satellite-based algorithm in estimating extreme rainfall events in northwestern Turkey
Yücel, İsmail (Copernicus GmbH, 2014-01-01)
Quantitative precipitation estimates are obtained with more uncertainty under the influence of changing climate variability and complex topography from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. On the other hand, hydrologic model simulations depend heavily on the availability of reliable precipitation estimates. Difficulties in estimating precipitation impose an important limitation on the possibility and reliability of hydrologic forecasting and early warning systems. This study examines the performance o...
Numerical simulation of advective Lotka-Volterra systems by discontinuous Galerkin method
Aktaş, Senem; Karasözen, Bülent; Uzunca, Murat; Department of Scientific Computing (2014)
In this thesis, we study numerically advection-diffusion-reaction equations arising from Lotka-Volterra models in river ecosystems characterized by unidirectional flow. We consider two and three species models which include competition, coexistence and extinction depending on the parameters. The one dimensional models are discretized by interior penalty discontinuous Galerkin model in space. For time discretization, fully implicit backward Euler method and semi-implicit IMEX-BDF methods are used. Numerical ...
Citation Formats
M. m. Fadlelmula, S. Akın, and H. s. Duzgun, “The impact of hard data uncertainty in reservoirs modelling,” presented at the 2nd EAGE Workshop on Well Injectivity and Productivity in CarbonatesVolume 2017-December, 2017, Doha; Qatar, 2017, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85048869041&origin=inward.
METU IIS - Integrated Information Service open@metu.edu.tr