The impact of hard data uncertainty in reservoirs modelling

Fadlelmula, M.m.
Akın, Serhat
Duzgun, H.s.
Predicting and estimating real world conditions presents one of the major ways in which uncertainty is introduced to reservoir modelling, with errors often occurring due to the scarcity of subsurface geological information. The inherently random nature of physical phenomena is another source of uncertainty. While uncertainty due to physical phenomena cannot be reduced - because it is a state of nature - developing more accurate models and collecting additional data can help decrease estimation uncertainty. These uncertainties affect the output of reservoir models, but to what extent? This study provides a systematic way to investigate the propagation of hard data uncertainty through the estimate of original oil in place (OOIP) and recoverable oil in place (ROIP) for a given reservoir model. The reservoir is modelled using a multiple-point statistics (MPS) methodology. The results show that the projected OOIP and ROIP values are very sensitive to hard data uncertainty. © 2017 European Association of Geoscientists and Engineers EAGE. All rights reserved.
2nd EAGE Workshop on Well Injectivity and Productivity in CarbonatesVolume 2017-December, 2017


Temporal and spatial changes of primary productivity the sea of Marmara obtained by remote sensing
İkis, Didem; Bilgin, Cemal Can; Department of Biology (2007)
Temporal and spatial variations in the Sea of Marmara based on monthly averages of chlorophyll a, which is the major indicator of phytoplankton biomass and primary production, recorded by SeaWiFS and MODIS-Aqua sensors at nearly 100 stations have been analyzed for the period of 1997-2007. Majority of phytoplankton blooms occur during the winter and spring seasons, followed by a smaller secondary bloom during the fall season. The majority of high magnitude blooms occur at the Eastern part of the Sea which ma...
The Effects of Implementing Different Ground-motionLogic-tree Frameworks on Seismic Risk Assessment
Ay, Bekir Özer (null; 2018-06-21)
This study investigates the link between probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and corresponding loss estimations by using different ground-motion logic-tree frameworks from reliable large scale seismic hazard projects as well as the logic-tree framework established in this study. The predictive models selected for these logic trees are expected to represent the center, body and range of ground-motion intensity measure estimates. Regarding with the hazard component of risk assessment, the ground motion in...
The role of overstrength on the seismic performance of asymmetric-plan structures
Kaatsız, Kaan; Sucuoğlu, Haluk (Wiley, 2019-04-10)
Uneven distribution of seismic demand in asymmetric-plan structures is a critical concern in earthquake-resistant design. Contemporary seismic design strategies that are based on linear elastic response, single load reduction factor, and uniform ductility demand throughout an asymmetric system generally lead to unsatisfactory performance in terms of realized ductilities and nonuniform damage distribution due to strong torsional coupling associated with asymmetric-plan systems. In many cases, actual nonlinea...
Evaluating a mesoscale atmosphere model and a satellite-based algorithm in estimating extreme rainfall events in northwestern Turkey
Yücel, İsmail (Copernicus GmbH, 2014-01-01)
Quantitative precipitation estimates are obtained with more uncertainty under the influence of changing climate variability and complex topography from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. On the other hand, hydrologic model simulations depend heavily on the availability of reliable precipitation estimates. Difficulties in estimating precipitation impose an important limitation on the possibility and reliability of hydrologic forecasting and early warning systems. This study examines the performance o...
Probabilistic Models for Cyclic Straining of Saturated Clean Sands
Çetin, Kemal Önder; Wu, Jiaer; Kammerer, Annie M.; Seed, Raymond B. (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2009-03-01)
A maximum likelihood framework for the probabilistic assessment of postcyclic straining of saturated clean sands is described. Databases consisting of cyclic laboratory test results including maximum shear and postcyclic volumetric strains in conjunction with relative density, number of stress (strain) cycles, and "index" test results were used for the development of probabilistically based postcyclic strain correlations. For this purpose, in addition to the compilation of existing data from literature, a s...
Citation Formats
M. m. Fadlelmula, S. Akın, and H. s. Duzgun, “The impact of hard data uncertainty in reservoirs modelling,” presented at the 2nd EAGE Workshop on Well Injectivity and Productivity in CarbonatesVolume 2017-December, 2017, Doha; Qatar, 2017, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: