Source-pathway-receptor-consequence conceptual model for floodıng and tsunamı at the ayamama rıver and coastal area

Çoban, İlker
There are many sources of flooding of river basins and coastal areas such as precipitation, tsunami, and storm surge. When assessing the risk of these hazards, it is important to understand the source but also to define the flood plain characteristics considering links between elements of flood plain. Although numerical hydraulic models are widely used to evaluate the risk quantitatively, description of the multiple links between exposure and susceptibility of a specific location or population is not achieved easily. Also, they can be limited by data, quality of resources and computational tools. Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) conceptual model is an alternative method to define flood plain that describes relationships of each element inside as a snapshot. SPRC conceptual model aims to provide better understanding of the study area, existing flood protection structures, the relationship of the flood source, land use and all stakeholders. The aim of this study is to analyze the tsunami inundation and river flooding at the Ayamama River and Bakırköy coastline of Istanbul by using SPRC conceptual model. This study area has experienced multiple river flood events in the last 20 years and the coastal area is highly prone to tsunami. While SPRC model represents an alternative view for coastal flood plain, HEC-RAS and NAMI DANCE numerical models are also constructed for this area in order to compare different approaches of modelling. HEC-RAS model was run with 500 year return period flood and NAMI DANCE model was run with expected land slide source in the Büyükçekmece coast. For numerical models, CORINE database, gauge observations, meteorological data, numerical elevation model are used. For the study area, the results highlighted those locations which act as pathway for multiple receptors. These locations can be assumed as suitable locations for protection measures. Output of the studies showed that although SPRC models cannot provide a quantitative analysis of the critical areas, it can be an efficient wayto describe the propagation of flood over a complex flood plain for different type of flood sources.


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Citation Formats
İ. Çoban, “Source-pathway-receptor-consequence conceptual model for floodıng and tsunamı at the ayamama rıver and coastal area,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2021.