Superensembles of raw and bias-adjusted regional climate models for Mediterranean region, Turkey

Date

2021-09-01

Author

Mesta, Buket
Kentel Erdoğan, Elçin

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

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For regional-scale studies on climate change and relevant impact assessment, the projections of regional climate models (RCMs) are used due to their advantage of high resolution and better representation of the local climate relative to the global climate models. However, direct use of RCM outputs is prone to uncertainties and biases that may significantly diminish the accuracy of results. EURO-COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) initiative that is a part of the global Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment Project provides high-resolution RCM projections for the European domain and bias-adjusted regional projections under the "CORDEX-Adjust" Project for climate change impact assessment studies. This study aims to perform a multi-model analysis of precipitation data using bias-adjusted and raw/non-bias adjusted CORDEX RCMs to obtain an evaluation of their representativeness for local climate conditions and adequacy to be used for climate change impact assessment. For this purpose, the analysis focuses on four CORDEX RCMs and their 12 bias-adjusted versions generated with cumulative distribution function transformation, quantile mapping, and distribution-based scaling methodologies. For the analysis in total, 16 hindcast results of raw and bias-adjusted RCMs, and three superensembles (SEs) generated through multiple linear regression are compared for their performance regarding their goodness of fit to the ground-based precipitation monitoring data from eight meteorological stations in the Mediterranean region in Turkey. The analysis verified that the skill of individual simulations including the bias-adjusted outputs is significantly variable in spatial and temporal means. On the other hand, SE formed by using all 16 hindcast outputs has the highest skill for the representation of variability in precipitation in time as well as for the reproduction of annual climatology at all stations, although potential drawbacks concerning seasonality and the range of anomaly may still exist which might be significant depending on the specific aim of impact assessment.

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/93878

Journal

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7381

Collections

Department of Civil Engineering, Article

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Citation Formats

B. Mesta and E. Kentel Erdoğan, “Superensembles of raw and bias-adjusted regional climate models for Mediterranean region, Turkey,” INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, pp. 0–0, 2021, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/93878.