PHYSICALLY-BASED MODELING OF RAINFALL-TRIGGERED LANDSLIDES IN KAPTANPASA, RIZE

Download

index.pdf

Date

2022-2-28

Author

Durmaz, Muhammet

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

431
views

135
downloads

Physically-based models are reliable tools for landslide susceptibility assessment. However, they are, based on various simplifications, affected by different factors, and applicable for particular landslides. Therefore, landslide inventories are recommended to be subdivided into subsets reflecting different controlling factors and failure mechanisms, and the analysis should reflect these differences. Many physically-based models are based on infinite slope assumptions. The applicability of this assumption is associated with having large and long dimensions compared to their depth. This study investigates morphometric features of more than 1000 individual landslides triggered by a rainfall event on Sept 27- Oct 4 in 2017 in Kaptanpaşa, Rize (Northern Turkey). The failures were classified according to their morphology, slope types, and whether the infinite slope assumption is valid or not. 45% of failures on hillslopes and 24.1% of failures in other slopes confirm the infinite slope assumption. Depth of landslide can be represented by Weibull distribution with a mean depth of 1.05 m. Two different hydrological (FSLAM, TRIGRS) and stability (infinite-slope, 3D slope stability via SCOOPS3D) methods are tested for physically-based modeling of these failures. Stability parameters (ø,c,z) and antecedent conditions were calibrated semi-automatically via a MATLAB code. Then hydraulic parameters were calibrated iteratively. In the calibration, only failures confirming the models' assumptions were employed. The performance of FSLAM was evaluated as highest in terms of area under curve (AUC), indicating that the final pore pressure condition is close to saturation. SCOOPS3D estimated unstable areas less than infinite slope solution with higher ratio of True Positive Rate (TPR) / False Positive Rate (FPR) , confirming the other studies in the literature. Moreover, the performance of the stability assumption is shown to be dependent on the morphology of failures.

Subject Keywords

Landslide morphology, landslide susceptibility, TRIGRS, FSLAM, SCOOPS3D

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/96717

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Improvement of statistical landslide susceptibility mapping by using spatial and global regression methods in the case of More and Romsdal (Norway) Erener, Arzu; Düzgün, Hafize Şebnem (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2010-03-01) Statistical models are one of the most preferred methods among many landslide susceptibility assessment methods. As landslide occurrences and influencing factors have spatial variations, global models like neural network or logistic regression (LR) ignore spatial dependence or autocorrelation characteristics of data between the observations in susceptibility assessment. However, to assess the probability of landslide within a specified period of time and within a given area, it is important to understand th...
A comparison of the GIS based landslide susceptibility assessment methods: multivariate versus bivariate Süzen, Mehmet Lütfi (2004-03-01) The purpose of this study is to evaluate and to compare the results of multivariate (logical regression) and bivariate (landslide susceptibility) methods in Geographical Information System (GIS) based landslide susceptibility assessment procedures. In order to achieve this goal the Asarsuyu catchment in NW Turkey was selected as a test zone because of its well-known landslide occurrences interfering with the E-5 highway mountain pass.
Analytical modeling of asymmetric multi-segment rotor - bearing systems with Timoshenko beam model including gyroscopic moments Özşahin, Orkun; Özgüven, Hasan Nevzat (2014-11-01) In this study, analytical modeling and an analysis approach for asymmetric multi-segment rotor bearing systems are presented. Timoshenko beam model which includes the effect of gyroscopic moments is employed for modeling rotor segments. Instead of applying FEM, sub-segment Frequency Response Functions (FRFs) are obtained analytically, and sub-segment FRFs obtained are coupled by using receptance coupling method. Bearing properties are included into system dynamics by employing structural modification techni...
Data driven bivariate landslide susceptibility assessment using geographical information systems: A method and application to Asarsuyu catchment, Turkey Süzen, Mehmet Lütfi (2004-01-01) In the last decades, landslide hazard assessment has attracted many researchers' attention. A number of parameters are suggested to be responsible to quantitatively explain the mechanism of landslides; many of these parameters are very important and factual. However, some data types and models are site-specific and could not be applied to different locations. Furthermore, the data stored in continuous parameter maps are divided into a number of classes arbitrarily, depending on the vision of the expert. Bas...
Comparison of analytical wake model predictions with experimental data for a non-uniform porous disc for uniform and non-uniform inflow Abdulrahim, Anas; Akpolat, Tuğrul; Perçin, Mustafa; Uzol, Oğuz (2021-05-25) Analytical wake models are widely used in the industry due to their reasonably accurate prediction capability at low computational cost. In wind tunnel studies, wind turbine wakes are frequently modeled using porous discs that have uniform or non-uniform radial porosity (e.g. Camp and Cal [2016]). Amiri et al. [2019] compared wake model predictions to measurements for uniform and nonuniform porous discs. They showed that some model predictions agree well with measured wakes. Recently, we investigated the im...

Citation Formats

M. Durmaz, “PHYSICALLY-BASED MODELING OF RAINFALL-TRIGGERED LANDSLIDES IN KAPTANPASA, RIZE,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2022.